HonestElo
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Casey Kenney

Inactive · Southpaw · 170 cm · reach 173 cm
Elo rating
1570 ±36
LCB 1523
Rank
—
—
UFC record
5-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 1 · Dec 4
Streak
-2
Δ90d -11 · Δ1y -11
Last fight
Aug 7, 2021
L by Decision

Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Mar 30, 2019 — W vs Ray Borg Δ+34Aug 17, 2019 — W vs Manny Bermudez Δ+33Feb 15, 2020 — L vs Merab Dvalishvili Δ-34May 30, 2020 — W vs Louis Smolka Δ+34Oct 3, 2020 — W vs Alatengheili Δ+28Oct 24, 2020 — W vs Nathaniel Wood Δ+16Mar 6, 2021 — L vs Dominick Cruz Δ-15Aug 7, 2021 — L vs Song Yadong Δ-15 14931532157216111651 20202021 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":181.3,"elo":1534,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Ray Borg","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":1,"x":162.5,"y":136.8,"elo":1567,"date":"2019-08-17","opp":"Manny Bermudez","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":342.6,"y":182.3,"elo":1533,"date":"2020-02-15","opp":"Merab Dvalishvili","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":3,"x":446.5,"y":136.2,"elo":1567,"date":"2020-05-30","opp":"Louis Smolka","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":4,"x":571.2,"y":98.7,"elo":1595,"date":"2020-10-03","opp":"Alatengheili","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":592,"y":77.7,"elo":1611,"date":"2020-10-24","opp":"Nathaniel Wood","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":723.6,"y":97.3,"elo":1596,"date":"2021-03-06","opp":"Dominick Cruz","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":7,"x":876,"y":117.7,"elo":1581,"date":"2021-08-07","opp":"Song Yadong","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 7, 2021 Song Yadong L -15
Mar 6, 2021 Dominick Cruz L -15
Oct 24, 2020 Nathaniel Wood W +16
Oct 3, 2020 Alatengheili W +28
May 30, 2020 Louis Smolka W +34

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.87 avg 3.92
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
45% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.75 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.95 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
37% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
56% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.27 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
20%
1 / 5
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
1
20% of wins
DEC
4
80% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 1 (20%) 1 Dec: 4 (80%) 4
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
1 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1589
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.9
actual +1 vs expected