HonestElo
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Daniel Pineda

Active #78 featherweight · Orthodox · 170 cm · reach 175 cm
Elo rating
1485 ±33
LCB 1442
Rank
#78
top 80% of division
UFC record
5-8-0
KO 1 · Sub 4 · Dec 0
Streak
-3
Δ90d +3 · Δ1y +3
Last fight
Oct 19, 2024
L by Decision

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Jan 20, 2012 — W vs Pat Schilling Δ+33Mar 2, 2012 — W vs Mackens Semerzier Δ+33May 26, 2012 — L vs Mike Brown Δ-38Jul 21, 2012 — L vs Antonio Carvalho Δ-39Apr 13, 2013 — W vs Justin Lawrence Δ+34Aug 17, 2013 — L vs Diego Brandao Δ-14Mar 15, 2014 — L vs Robert Whiteford Δ-18Aug 15, 2020 — W vs Herbert Burns Δ+23Dec 12, 2020 — L vs Cub Swanson Δ-14Mar 25, 2023 — W vs Tucker Lutz Δ+18Jun 3, 2023 — L vs Alex Caceres Δ-14Jul 27, 2024 — L vs Nathaniel Wood Δ-12Oct 19, 2024 — L vs Darren Elkins Δ-11 14421483152415651606 201420162018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":118.2,"elo":1533,"date":"2012-01-20","opp":"Pat Schilling","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":31.7,"y":75.5,"elo":1566,"date":"2012-03-02","opp":"Mackens Semerzier","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":47.2,"y":124.5,"elo":1528,"date":"2012-05-26","opp":"Mike Brown","result":"L","delta":-38},{"i":3,"x":57.5,"y":174.4,"elo":1489,"date":"2012-07-21","opp":"Antonio Carvalho","result":"L","delta":-39},{"i":4,"x":106.2,"y":130.8,"elo":1523,"date":"2013-04-13","opp":"Justin Lawrence","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":129.2,"y":148.5,"elo":1510,"date":"2013-08-17","opp":"Diego Brandao","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":6,"x":167.6,"y":171.6,"elo":1492,"date":"2014-03-15","opp":"Robert Whiteford","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":7,"x":596.8,"y":142.6,"elo":1514,"date":"2020-08-15","opp":"Herbert Burns","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":8,"x":618.5,"y":160.9,"elo":1500,"date":"2020-12-12","opp":"Cub Swanson","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":9,"x":771,"y":137.1,"elo":1518,"date":"2023-03-25","opp":"Tucker Lutz","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":10,"x":783.8,"y":154.7,"elo":1505,"date":"2023-06-03","opp":"Alex Caceres","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":11,"x":860.6,"y":170.3,"elo":1493,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Nathaniel Wood","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":184.5,"elo":1482,"date":"2024-10-19","opp":"Darren Elkins","result":"L","delta":-11}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 19, 2024 Darren Elkins L -11
Jul 27, 2024 Nathaniel Wood L -12
Jun 3, 2023 Alex Caceres L -14
Mar 25, 2023 Tucker Lutz W +18
Dec 12, 2020 Cub Swanson L -14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.47 avg 3.76
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
50% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.70 avg 2.97
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
45% avg 57%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.29 avg 1.39
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
28% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
56% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.39 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
5 / 5
Finish rate
KO
1
20% of wins
SUB
4
80% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 1 (20%) 1 Sub: 4 (80%) 4 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
3 60%
R2
2 40%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1572
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.2
actual -1 vs expected