HonestElo
← featherweight

Herbert Burns "The Blaze"

Active #67 featherweight · age 38 · Orthodox · 5'9" 175 cm · 145 lb 66 kg · reach 73" 185 cm
At a glance
  • 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 100% of wins by KO or submission
  • 100% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1405
Global Elo 1460 ±42
Rank
#67
top 86% of division
UFC record
2-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 0
Streak
-4
Δ90d +11 · Δ1y +11
Last fight
Aug 17, 2024
Loss by KO · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
38m
Avg fight time
6:23
Bonuses
3
Fights per year
1.3
Since last fight
1y 10mo

Honest Elo history

6 fights · tap & drag
Jan 25, 2020 — W vs Nate Landwehr Δ+33Jun 6, 2020 — W vs Evan Dunham Δ+37Aug 15, 2020 — L vs Daniel Pineda Δ-40Jul 16, 2022 — L vs Bill Algeo Δ-34Mar 30, 2024 — L vs Julio Arce Δ-30Aug 17, 2024 — L vs Jack Jenkins Δ-16 13751400142514501475150015251550 2021202220232024 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":201.2,"elo":1489,"date":"2020-01-25","opp":"Nate Landwehr","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":147.5,"y":133.9,"elo":1526,"date":"2020-06-06","opp":"Evan Dunham","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":177.7,"y":207.8,"elo":1486,"date":"2020-08-15","opp":"Daniel Pineda","result":"L","delta":-40},{"i":3,"x":480.3,"y":270.7,"elo":1451,"date":"2022-07-16","opp":"Bill Algeo","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":4,"x":749.5,"y":326.1,"elo":1421,"date":"2024-03-30","opp":"Julio Arce","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":5,"x":810,"y":354.6,"elo":1405,"date":"2024-08-17","opp":"Jack Jenkins","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 17, 2024 Jack Jenkins L -16
Mar 30, 2024 Julio Arce L -30
Jul 16, 2022 Bill Algeo L -34
Aug 15, 2020 Daniel Pineda L -40
Jun 6, 2020 Evan Dunham W +37

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
2 / 2
Finish rate
KO
1
50% of wins
SUB
1
50% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 1 (50%) 1 Sub: 1 (50%) 1 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 71 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
54% Head
  • Head 54%
  • Body 34%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
68% Distance
  • Distance 68%
  • Clinch 17%
  • Ground 15%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
4 of 4 · usually R2
4 KO/TKO 0 Sub 0 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1525
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Evan Dunham
Elo 1572 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
3.0
−0.9 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 6 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1519

Top featherweight

See full rankings →
Alexander Volkanovski C
#1 · Elo 1697
Movsar Evloev
#2 · Elo 1693
Aljamain Sterling
#3 · Elo 1670
Lerone Murphy
#4 · Elo 1649
Arnold Allen
#5 · Elo 1635
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Herbert Burns on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.