HonestElo
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John Castaneda

Active #54 featherweight · Switch · 168 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1528 ±38
LCB 1479
Rank
#54
top 55% of division
UFC record
4-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -13
Last fight
Apr 26, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Jul 25, 2020 — L vs Nathaniel Wood Δ-23Feb 20, 2021 — W vs Eddie Wineland Δ+36Feb 5, 2022 — W vs Miles Johns Δ+37Oct 1, 2022 — L vs Daniel Santos Δ-40Jun 3, 2023 — W vs Muin Gafurov Δ+28Nov 11, 2023 — W vs Kyung Ho Kang Δ+19Jun 8, 2024 — L vs Daniel Marcos Δ-16Apr 26, 2025 — L vs Chris Gutierrez Δ-13 14371477151615561596 20212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":182.9,"elo":1477,"date":"2020-07-25","opp":"Nathaniel Wood","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":1,"x":127.1,"y":135.2,"elo":1513,"date":"2021-02-20","opp":"Eddie Wineland","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":298.8,"y":85.5,"elo":1550,"date":"2022-02-05","opp":"Miles Johns","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":3,"x":415.6,"y":139,"elo":1510,"date":"2022-10-01","opp":"Daniel Santos","result":"L","delta":-40},{"i":4,"x":535.9,"y":101.8,"elo":1538,"date":"2023-06-03","opp":"Muin Gafurov","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":614.9,"y":77.1,"elo":1556,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Kyung Ho Kang","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":718,"y":98.1,"elo":1540,"date":"2024-06-08","opp":"Daniel Marcos","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":876,"y":114.9,"elo":1528,"date":"2025-04-26","opp":"Chris Gutierrez","result":"L","delta":-13}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 26, 2025 Chris Gutierrez L -13
Jun 8, 2024 Daniel Marcos L -16
Nov 11, 2023 Kyung Ho Kang W +19
Jun 3, 2023 Muin Gafurov W +28
Oct 1, 2022 Daniel Santos L -40

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.42 avg 3.76
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
51% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
5.18 avg 2.97
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
52% avg 57%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.57 avg 1.39
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
39% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
76% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.14 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 1 (25%) 1 Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1549
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.7
actual 0 vs expected