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✓ Arnold Allen won · by Decision · R5

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa — Honest Elo matchup

featherweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
May 16, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Arnold Allen
#6 12-3-0
Elo 1635
VS
Corner B
Melquizael Costa
#22 7-3-0
Elo 1562
Final result · recorded May 17, 2026
Arnold Allen
defeated Melquizael Costa by Decision in round 5

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Arnold Allen 50.0% · Melquizael Costa 50.0%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Arnold Allen 57.0% · Melquizael Costa 43.0%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 9
Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos featherweight Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj bantamweight Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams welterweight Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan light heavyweight Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti women's bantamweight Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski middleweight Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana women's strawweight Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule flyweight Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari women's strawweight

Notable

Allen

Has never been finished — all 3 losses went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

12-3-0 UFC record 7-3-0
KO 2 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 2
+1 Streak -1
32 Age 30
5'8" 173 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
70" 178 cm Reach 71" 180 cm
Southpaw Stance Southpaw
1678 Global Elo 1601
1635 Elo rating 1562
Arnold Allen — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • Career-best 10-fight win streak
  • UFC veteran since 2015
Melquizael Costa — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 57% of wins by KO or submission
  • 43% of wins finished in round 1
  • Career-best 6-fight win streak

Arnold Allen — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 765 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
73% Head
  • Head 73%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 7%

Melquizael Costa — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 462 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
47% Head
  • Head 47%
  • Body 30%
  • Leg 23%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 8%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.52
4.29
div avg 4.59
44%
47%
div avg 49%
3.15
3.19
div avg 3.37
60%
50%
div avg 57%
1.24
1.53
div avg 1.42
60%
35%
div avg 42%
73%
51%
div avg 65%
0.28
0.84
div avg 0.48
2
3
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Arnold Allen
33% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 2
can finish?
Melquizael Costa
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Melquizael Costa
57% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 2
can finish?
Arnold Allen
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Arnold Allen has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1658 vs 1585, 5 quality wins to 0.

Arnold Allen red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1658
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
5
of 12 UFC wins
Toughest win
Giga Chikadze
Elo 1658 at fight time
Expected wins
8.5
+3.5 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 15 fights
1471
1615
Notable wins
Giga Chikadze 1658 Sodiq Yusuff 1621 Calvin Kattar 1616 Melquizael Costa 1615 Nik Lentz 1613
Melquizael Costa blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1585
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Christian Rodriguez
Elo 1588 at fight time
Expected wins
4.7
+2.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 10 fights
1554
1664
Corner A recent form
Arnold Allen
Corner B recent form
Melquizael Costa
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Arnold Allen & Melquizael Costa on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.