HonestElo
← Back to event card
✓ Alice Ardelean won · by Submission · R2
women's strawweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
May 16, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Alice Ardelean
#25 3-2-0
Elo 1475
VS
Corner B
Polyana Viana
#46 4-8-0
Elo 1388
Final result · recorded May 16, 2026
Alice Ardelean
defeated Polyana Viana by Submission in round 2

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Alice Ardelean 54.8% · Polyana Viana 45.2%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Alice Ardelean 56.2% · Polyana Viana 43.8%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 9
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Main event · featherweight Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos featherweight Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj bantamweight Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams welterweight Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan light heavyweight Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti women's bantamweight Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski middleweight Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule flyweight Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari women's strawweight

Tale of the tape

3-2-0 UFC record 4-8-0
KO 0 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 3
+3 Streak -4
34 Age 34
5'3" 160 cm Height 5'5" 165 cm
62" 158 cm Reach 67" 170 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1524 Global Elo 1435
1475 Elo rating 1388
Alice Ardelean — Notable ▼
At a glance
Polyana Viana — Notable ▼
At a glance

Alice Ardelean — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 487 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
70% Head
  • Head 70%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
97% Distance
  • Distance 97%
  • Clinch 2%
  • Ground 1%

Polyana Viana — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 252 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
47% Head
  • Head 47%
  • Body 31%
  • Leg 21%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
81% Distance
  • Distance 81%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 10%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

7.00
2.82
div avg 4.21
46%
41%
div avg 48%
4.97
2.74
div avg 3.59
61%
53%
div avg 55%
1.08
0.67
div avg 1.94
50%
33%
div avg 46%
86%
33%
div avg 66%
0.22
1.51
div avg 0.55
3
1
div avg 4

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Alice Ardelean
33% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 1
can finish?
Polyana Viana
finished 63%
5 of 8 losses
Polyana Viana
100% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 3
can finish?
Alice Ardelean
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Polyana Viana has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1522 vs 1453, 0 quality wins to 0.

Alice Ardelean red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1453
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Polyana Viana
Elo 1451 at fight time
Expected wins
2.6
+0.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1468
1451
Polyana Viana blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1522
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Maia Stevenson
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
5.7
−1.6 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 12 fights
1500
1495
Corner A recent form
Alice Ardelean
Corner B recent form
Polyana Viana
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Alice Ardelean & Polyana Viana on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.