HonestElo
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✓ Luis Gurule won · by Decision · R3
flyweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
May 16, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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Corner A
Daniel Barez
#44 1-3-0
Elo 1391
VS
Corner B
Luis Gurule
#73 1-4-0
Elo 1383
Final result · recorded May 16, 2026
Luis Gurule
defeated Daniel Barez by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Daniel Barez 30.3% · Luis Gurule 69.7%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Daniel Barez 56.9% · Luis Gurule 43.1%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 9
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Main event · featherweight Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos featherweight Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj bantamweight Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams welterweight Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan light heavyweight Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti women's bantamweight Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski middleweight Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana women's strawweight Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari women's strawweight

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Gurule +50 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Form

Both enter off a loss (May 2026 / May 2026).

Tale of the tape

1-3-0 UFC record 1-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
-2 Streak -1
37 Age 32
5'6" 168 cm Height 5'5" 165 cm
66" 168 cm Reach 64" 163 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1436 Global Elo 1424
1391 Elo rating 1383
Daniel Barez — Notable ▼
At a glance
Luis Gurule — Notable ▼

Daniel Barez — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 231 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
95% Distance
  • Distance 95%
  • Clinch 3%
  • Ground 3%

Luis Gurule — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 277 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
90% Distance
  • Distance 90%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 1%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.97
5.02
div avg 3.86
48%
41%
div avg 46%
7.50
5.65
div avg 3.26
49%
57%
div avg 57%
0.64
0.81
div avg 1.56
25%
18%
div avg 38%
67%
73%
div avg 63%
0.00
0.27
div avg 0.81
1
2
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Daniel Barez
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Luis Gurule
finished 50%
2 of 4 losses
Luis Gurule
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Daniel Barez
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1485 (Daniel Barez) vs 1501 (Luis Gurule).

Daniel Barez red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1485
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Victor Altamirano
Elo 1467 at fight time
Expected wins
2.0
−1.0 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1475
1419
Luis Gurule blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1501
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Daniel Barez
Elo 1468 at fight time
Expected wins
2.2
−1.2 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1471
1504
Corner A recent form
Daniel Barez
Corner B recent form
Luis Gurule
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Daniel Barez & Luis Gurule on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.