HonestElo
← featherweight

Melquizael Costa

Active #14 featherweight
Elo rating
1615 ±26
LCB 1582
Rank
#14
top 14% of division
UFC record
7-2-0
KO 2 · Sub 2 · Dec 3
Streak
+6
Δ90d +18 · Δ1y +67
Last fight
Feb 21, 2026
W by KO

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Jan 21, 2023 — L vs Thiago Moises Δ-28Jul 15, 2023 — W vs Austin Lingo Δ+31Dec 9, 2023 — L vs Steve Garcia Δ-29Jun 15, 2024 — W vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Δ+37Feb 22, 2025 — W vs Andre Fili Δ+37Mar 29, 2025 — W vs Christian Rodriguez Δ+18May 17, 2025 — W vs Julian Erosa Δ+15Dec 13, 2025 — W vs Morgan Charriere Δ+17Feb 21, 2026 — W vs Dan Ige Δ+18 14321488154415991655 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":198,"elo":1472,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":156.3,"y":168.5,"elo":1503,"date":"2023-07-15","opp":"Austin Lingo","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":267.4,"y":195.9,"elo":1474,"date":"2023-12-09","opp":"Steve Garcia","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":410.3,"y":160.9,"elo":1511,"date":"2024-06-15","opp":"Shayilan Nuerdanbieke","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":4,"x":600.8,"y":125.7,"elo":1548,"date":"2025-02-22","opp":"Andre Fili","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":627.3,"y":108.8,"elo":1566,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Christian Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":664.3,"y":94.7,"elo":1581,"date":"2025-05-17","opp":"Julian Erosa","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":823.1,"y":78.7,"elo":1598,"date":"2025-12-13","opp":"Morgan Charriere","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":62,"elo":1615,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Dan Ige","result":"W","delta":18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 21, 2026 Dan Ige W +18
Dec 13, 2025 Morgan Charriere W +17
May 17, 2025 Julian Erosa W +15
Mar 29, 2025 Christian Rodriguez W +18
Feb 22, 2025 Andre Fili W +37

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.81 avg 3.75
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
50% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.58 avg 2.99
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 57%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.74 avg 1.38
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
41% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
59% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.95 avg 0.42
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
57%
4 / 7
Finish rate
KO
2
29% of wins
SUB
2
29% of wins
DEC
3
43% of wins
KO: 2 (29%) 2 Sub: 2 (29%) 2 Dec: 3 (43%) 3
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
3 75%
R2
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1562
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.3
actual +3 vs expected