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Melquizael Costa "The Dalmatian"

Active #20 featherweight · age 29 · Southpaw · 5'10" 178 cm · 145 lb 66 kg · reach 71" 180 cm
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 57% of wins by KO or submission
  • 43% of wins finished in round 1
  • Career-best 6-fight win streak
Elo rating
1562
Global Elo 1601 ±30
Rank
#20
top 25% of division
UFC record
7-3-0
KO 2 · Sub 2 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d -14 · Δ1y +21
Last fight
May 16, 2026
Loss by Decision · R5
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 48m
Avg fight time
10:46
Bonuses
2
Fights per year
3.0
Since last fight
1mo

Honest Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Jan 21, 2023 — L vs Thiago Moises Δ-28Jul 15, 2023 — W vs Austin Lingo Δ+31Dec 9, 2023 — L vs Steve Garcia Δ-29Jun 15, 2024 — W vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Δ+37Feb 22, 2025 — W vs Andre Fili Δ+37Mar 29, 2025 — W vs Christian Rodriguez Δ+18May 17, 2025 — W vs Julian Erosa Δ+15Dec 13, 2025 — W vs Morgan Charriere Δ+17Feb 21, 2026 — W vs Dan Ige Δ+18May 16, 2026 — L vs Arnold Allen Δ-14 14001450150015501600 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":357,"elo":1433,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":194,"y":307.4,"elo":1464,"date":"2023-07-15","opp":"Austin Lingo","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":281.4,"y":353.5,"elo":1435,"date":"2023-12-09","opp":"Steve Garcia","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":393.8,"y":294.6,"elo":1472,"date":"2024-06-15","opp":"Shayilan Nuerdanbieke","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":4,"x":543.6,"y":235.3,"elo":1509,"date":"2025-02-22","opp":"Andre Fili","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":564.5,"y":206.8,"elo":1527,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Christian Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":593.6,"y":183.1,"elo":1542,"date":"2025-05-17","opp":"Julian Erosa","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":718.4,"y":156.2,"elo":1559,"date":"2025-12-13","opp":"Morgan Charriere","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":760.1,"y":128.1,"elo":1576,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Dan Ige","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":810,"y":150.2,"elo":1562,"date":"2026-05-16","opp":"Arnold Allen","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 16, 2026 Arnold Allen L -14
Feb 21, 2026 Dan Ige W +18
Dec 13, 2025 Morgan Charriere W +17
May 17, 2025 Julian Erosa W +15
Mar 29, 2025 Christian Rodriguez W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
57%
4 / 7
Finish rate
KO
2
29% of wins
SUB
2
29% of wins
DEC
3
43% of wins
KO: 2 (29%) 2 Sub: 2 (29%) 2 Dec: 3 (43%) 3
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
3 75%
R2
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 462 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
47% Head
  • Head 47%
  • Body 30%
  • Leg 23%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 8%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
67%
of losses by finish
2 of 3 · usually R2
1 KO/TKO 1 Sub 1 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1585
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Christian Rodriguez
Elo 1588 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.7
+2.3 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 10 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1554
1664

Top featherweight

See full rankings →
Alexander Volkanovski C
#1 · Elo 1697
Movsar Evloev
#2 · Elo 1693
Aljamain Sterling
#3 · Elo 1670
Lerone Murphy
#4 · Elo 1649
Arnold Allen
#5 · Elo 1635
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Melquizael Costa on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.