HonestElo
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✓ Ivan Erslan won · by Decision · R3
light heavyweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
May 16, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Tuco Tokkos
#38 1-3-0
Elo 1394
VS
Corner B
Ivan Erslan
#31 1-3-0
Elo 1412
Final result · recorded May 17, 2026
Ivan Erslan
defeated Tuco Tokkos by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Tuco Tokkos 41.1% · Ivan Erslan 58.9%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Tuco Tokkos 57.8% · Ivan Erslan 42.2%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 9
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Main event · featherweight Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos featherweight Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj bantamweight Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams welterweight Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti women's bantamweight Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski middleweight Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana women's strawweight Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule flyweight Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari women's strawweight

Tale of the tape

1-3-0 UFC record 1-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
-1 Streak +1
35 Age 34
6'4" 193 cm Height 6'2" 188 cm
76" 193 cm Reach 72" 183 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1445 Global Elo 1457
1394 Elo rating 1412
Tuco Tokkos — Notable ▼
At a glance
Ivan Erslan — Notable ▼

Tuco Tokkos — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 96 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
67% Head
  • Head 67%
  • Body 11%
  • Leg 22%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
86% Distance
  • Distance 86%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 7%

Ivan Erslan — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 117 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
82% Head
  • Head 82%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 4%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 4%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.23
2.42
div avg 4.68
43%
48%
div avg 51%
3.11
4.49
div avg 4.34
47%
54%
div avg 49%
2.78
0.31
div avg 1.23
35%
20%
div avg 37%
33%
69%
div avg 75%
0.70
0.00
div avg 0.61
4
4
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Tuco Tokkos
100% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 1
can finish?
Ivan Erslan
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses
Ivan Erslan
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Tuco Tokkos
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Ivan Erslan has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1514 vs 1477, 0 quality wins to 0.

Tuco Tokkos red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1477
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Junior Tafa
Elo 1485 at fight time
Expected wins
2.0
−1.0 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1500
1424
Ivan Erslan blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1514
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Tuco Tokkos
Elo 1478 at fight time
Expected wins
1.7
−0.7 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1492
1478

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • L
    Navajo Stirling
    L
    Decision - Unanimous
    Decision - Unanimous
    Dec 14, 2024
    May 10, 2025
Corner A recent form
Tuco Tokkos
Corner B recent form
Ivan Erslan
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Tuco Tokkos & Ivan Erslan on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.