Other bouts 11
- 1flyweight MainManel KapevsKyoji Horiguchi
- 2light heavyweightIon CutelabavsNavajo Stirling
- 3featherweightVinicius OliveiravsAndre Fili
- 4featherweightHyder AmilvsChristian Rodriguez
- 5flyweightAndre LimavsKevin Borjas
- 6Not linkedfeatherweightMelsik BaghdasaryanvsMurtazali Magomedov
- 7women's bantamweightBia MesquitavsMelissa Mullins
- 10featherweightGaston BolanosvsMichael Aswell Jr.
- 11women's bantamweightKarol RosavsLuana Santos
- 12Not linkedwelterweightLeon ShahbazyanvsLevan Chokheli
- 13Not linkedfeatherweightShane CollinsvsOtari Tanzilovi
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Allan Nascimento 71.4% · Mitch Raposo 28.6%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Allan Nascimento 66.6% · Mitch Raposo 33.4%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
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Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 8
Notable
Has never been finished — all 2 losses went to the scorecards.
Has never been finished — all 2 losses went to the scorecards.
Reach advantage of ~5".
Tale of the tape
| 4-2-0 | UFC record | 2-2-0 |
| KO 0 · Sub 2 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 0 |
| -1 | Streak | +2 |
| 34 | Age | 27 |
| 5'8" 173 cm | Height | 5'5" 165 cm |
| 69" 175 cm | Reach | 64" 163 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 1574 | Global Elo | 1515 |
| 1523 | Elo rating | 1457 |
Allan Nascimento — Notable ▼
- Has never been finished — durability signal
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
- 50% of wins by submission
Mitch Raposo — Notable ▼
- Has never been finished — durability signal
Allan Nascimento — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 172 landed total · career
- Head 42%
- Body 26%
- Leg 33%
- Distance 76%
- Clinch 8%
- Ground 16%
Mitch Raposo — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 109 landed total · career
- Head 71%
- Body 26%
- Leg 4%
- Distance 98%
- Clinch 2%
- Ground 0%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Joshua Van8.43
- 2Brandon Royval5.60
- 3Jose Ochoa5.16
- 4Daniel Barez4.97
- 5Cj Vergara4.95
- 1Joshua Van57%
- 2Cj Vergara57%
- 3Andre Lima55%
- 4Manel Kape55%
- 5Tatsuro Taira54%
- 1Jose Johnson1.85
- 2Nyamjargal Tumendemberel1.92
- 3Asu Almabayev1.94
- 4Joseph Morales2.05
- 5Kyoji Horiguchi2.08
- 1Alden Coria70%
- 2Matheus Nicolau66%
- 3Kai Kara-France64%
- 4Kyoji Horiguchi64%
- 5Sumudaerji63%
- 1Asu Almabayev4.74
- 2Cody Durden3.82
- 3Tim Elliott3.61
- 4Tatsuro Taira3.57
- 5Azat Maksum3.50
- 1Nyamjargal Tumendemberel67%
- 2Jose Johnson67%
- 3Brandon Royval64%
- 4Joshua Van62%
- 5Andre Lima56%
- 1Ramazan Temirov100%
- 2Matheus Nicolau90%
- 3Azat Maksum86%
- 4Alessandro Costa85%
- 5Kai Kara-France84%
- 1Joseph Morales3.04
- 2Jimmy Flick2.39
- 3Edgar Chairez1.82
- 4Tagir Ulanbekov1.52
- 5Alden Coria1.47
- 1Tatsuro Taira8.08
- 2Asu Almabayev7.34
- 3Tagir Ulanbekov6.11
- 4Cody Durden5.48
- 5Ronaldo Rodriguez4.92
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1508 (Allan Nascimento) vs 1520 (Mitch Raposo).
- Jun 20, 2026
- Nov 1, 2025
- May 31, 2025
- Jan 14, 2023
- May 14, 2022
- Jun 20, 2026
- Oct 25, 2025
- Apr 12, 2025
- Jun 1, 2024