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✓ Mitch Raposo won · by Decision · R3 · 5:00
flyweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Jun 20, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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Corner A
Allan Nascimento
#11 4-2-0
Elo 1522
VS
Corner B
Mitch Raposo
#30 2-2-0
Elo 1454
Final result · recorded Jun 21, 2026
Mitch Raposo
defeated Allan Nascimento by Decision in round 3 at 5:00

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Allan Nascimento 71.4% · Mitch Raposo 28.6%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Allan Nascimento 66.6% · Mitch Raposo 33.4%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 8
Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi Main event · flyweight Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling light heavyweight Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili featherweight Hyder Amil vs Christian Rodriguez featherweight Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas flyweight Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins women's bantamweight Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell Jr. featherweight Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos women's bantamweight

Tale of the tape

4-2-0 UFC record 2-2-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
-1 Streak +2
34 Age 27
5'8" 173 cm Height 5'5" 165 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 64" 163 cm
Orthodox Stance Switch
1574 Global Elo 1513
1522 Elo rating 1454
Allan Nascimento — Notable ▼
At a glance
Mitch Raposo — Notable ▼
At a glance

Allan Nascimento — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 172 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
42% Head
  • Head 42%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 33%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 16%

Mitch Raposo — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 109 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 4%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
98% Distance
  • Distance 98%
  • Clinch 2%
  • Ground 0%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.41
1.82
div avg 3.86
45%
42%
div avg 47%
1.93
2.88
div avg 3.24
57%
61%
div avg 56%
1.05
1.75
div avg 1.55
25%
32%
div avg 38%
44%
71%
div avg 64%
1.05
0.00
div avg 0.73
5
2
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Allan Nascimento
50% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 2
can finish?
Mitch Raposo
finished 0%
never finished
Mitch Raposo
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Allan Nascimento
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1508 (Allan Nascimento) vs 1513 (Mitch Raposo).

Allan Nascimento red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1508
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Jafel Filho
Elo 1543 at fight time
Expected wins
3.2
+0.8 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1526
1475
Mitch Raposo blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1513
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Allan Nascimento
Elo 1595 at fight time
Expected wins
1.8
+0.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1500
1595
Corner A recent form
Allan Nascimento
Corner B recent form
Mitch Raposo
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Allan Nascimento & Mitch Raposo on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.