HonestElo
← Back to event card
✓ Gaston Bolanos won · by Decision · R3 · 5:00
featherweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Jun 20, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Gaston Bolanos
#53 3-2-0
Elo 1455
VS
Corner B
Michael Aswell Jr.
#69 1-3-0
Elo 1404
Final result · recorded Jun 21, 2026
Gaston Bolanos
defeated Michael Aswell Jr. by Decision in round 3 at 5:00

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Gaston Bolanos 25.5% · Michael Aswell Jr. 74.5%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Gaston Bolanos 50.5% · Michael Aswell Jr. 49.5%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 8
Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi Main event · flyweight Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling light heavyweight Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili featherweight Hyder Amil vs Christian Rodriguez featherweight Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas flyweight Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins women's bantamweight Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo flyweight Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos women's bantamweight

Notable

Jr.

Has never been finished — all 3 losses went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

3-2-0 UFC record 1-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
+1 Streak -2
33 Age 25
5'7" 170 cm Height 5'8" 173 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 69" 175 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1509 Global Elo 1450
1455 Elo rating 1404
Gaston Bolanos — Notable ▼
At a glance
Michael Aswell Jr. — Notable ▼
At a glance

Gaston Bolanos — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 236 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
44% Head
  • Head 44%
  • Body 29%
  • Leg 27%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
81% Distance
  • Distance 81%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 15%

Michael Aswell Jr. — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 314 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
82% Head
  • Head 82%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 3%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
92% Distance
  • Distance 92%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 4%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.91
6.72
div avg 4.36
48%
39%
div avg 49%
3.54
7.11
div avg 3.45
55%
52%
div avg 57%
0.75
0.32
div avg 1.47
75%
25%
div avg 41%
50%
50%
div avg 65%
0.00
0.00
div avg 0.45
2
1
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Gaston Bolanos
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Michael Aswell Jr.
finished 0%
never finished
Michael Aswell Jr.
100% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Gaston Bolanos
finished 100%
2 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1478 (Gaston Bolanos) vs 1497 (Michael Aswell Jr.).

Gaston Bolanos red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1478
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Cortavious Romious
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
2.7
+0.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1415
1478
Michael Aswell Jr. blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1497
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Lucas Almeida
Elo 1477 at fight time
Expected wins
1.9
−0.9 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1495
1481
Corner A recent form
Gaston Bolanos
Corner B recent form
Michael Aswell Jr.
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Gaston Bolanos & Michael Aswell Jr. on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.