HonestElo
← lightweight

Paul Kelly

Inactive · age 41 · Orthodox · 5'9" 175 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 70" 178 cm
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2008
Elo rating
1475
Global Elo 1525 ±38
Rank
—
—
UFC record
5-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d +5 · Δ1y +5
Last fight
Feb 5, 2011
Loss by Submission · R2
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 41m
Avg fight time
11:13
Bonuses
3
Fights per year
3.0
Ground control
40m
Since last fight
15y 5mo

Honest Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Jan 19, 2008 — W vs Paul Taylor Δ+29Oct 18, 2008 — L vs Marcus Davis Δ-25Feb 21, 2009 — W vs Troy Mandaloniz Δ+31Jun 13, 2009 — W vs Rolando Delgado Δ+29Nov 14, 2009 — L vs Dennis Siver Δ-39Apr 10, 2010 — W vs Matt Veach Δ+17Aug 1, 2010 — L vs Jacob Volkmann Δ-19Nov 20, 2010 — W vs TJ O'Brien Δ+17Feb 5, 2011 — L vs Donald Cerrone Δ-20 1420144014601480150015201540 200920102011 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":238,"elo":1484,"date":"2008-01-19","opp":"Paul Taylor","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":266.6,"y":305.2,"elo":1459,"date":"2008-10-18","opp":"Marcus Davis","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":2,"x":348.1,"y":222,"elo":1490,"date":"2009-02-21","opp":"Troy Mandaloniz","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":420.6,"y":145.7,"elo":1519,"date":"2009-06-13","opp":"Rolando Delgado","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":520.2,"y":250.5,"elo":1480,"date":"2009-11-14","opp":"Dennis Siver","result":"L","delta":-39},{"i":5,"x":615.3,"y":204.1,"elo":1497,"date":"2010-04-10","opp":"Matt Veach","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":688.4,"y":254.3,"elo":1478,"date":"2010-08-01","opp":"Jacob Volkmann","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":760.2,"y":208.4,"elo":1496,"date":"2010-11-20","opp":"TJ O'Brien","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":810,"y":263.1,"elo":1475,"date":"2011-02-05","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"L","delta":-20}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 5, 2011 Donald Cerrone L -20
Nov 20, 2010 TJ O'Brien W +17
Aug 1, 2010 Jacob Volkmann L -19
Apr 10, 2010 Matt Veach W +17
Nov 14, 2009 Dennis Siver L -39

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
2 / 5
Finish rate
KO
1
20% of wins
SUB
1
20% of wins
DEC
3
60% of wins
KO: 1 (20%) 1 Sub: 1 (20%) 1 Dec: 3 (60%) 3
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
2 100%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 325 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
77% Head
  • Head 77%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
51% Ground
  • Distance 34%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 51%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
75%
of losses by finish
3 of 4 · usually R2
1 KO/TKO 2 Sub 1 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1497
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Troy Mandaloniz
Elo 1533 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.6
+0.4 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 9 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1506
1500

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Paul Kelly on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.