HonestElo
← lightweight

Paul Kelly

Inactive · Orthodox · 175 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1525 ±38
LCB 1475
Rank
—
—
UFC record
5-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d +5 · Δ1y +5
Last fight
Feb 5, 2011
L by Submission

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Jan 19, 2008 — W vs Paul Taylor Δ+29Oct 18, 2008 — L vs Marcus Davis Δ-25Feb 21, 2009 — W vs Troy Mandaloniz Δ+31Jun 13, 2009 — W vs Rolando Delgado Δ+29Nov 14, 2009 — L vs Dennis Siver Δ-39Apr 10, 2010 — W vs Matt Veach Δ+17Aug 1, 2010 — L vs Jacob Volkmann Δ-19Nov 20, 2010 — W vs TJ O'Brien Δ+17Feb 5, 2011 — L vs Donald Cerrone Δ-20 14641499153415691604 200920102011 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":137,"elo":1529,"date":"2008-01-19","opp":"Paul Taylor","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":233,"y":175.4,"elo":1504,"date":"2008-10-18","opp":"Marcus Davis","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":2,"x":329.4,"y":128,"elo":1535,"date":"2009-02-21","opp":"Troy Mandaloniz","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":415.2,"y":84.6,"elo":1564,"date":"2009-06-13","opp":"Rolando Delgado","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":533.1,"y":144.2,"elo":1525,"date":"2009-11-14","opp":"Dennis Siver","result":"L","delta":-39},{"i":5,"x":645.6,"y":117.8,"elo":1542,"date":"2010-04-10","opp":"Matt Veach","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":732.1,"y":146.3,"elo":1523,"date":"2010-08-01","opp":"Jacob Volkmann","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":817.1,"y":120.2,"elo":1540,"date":"2010-11-20","opp":"TJ O'Brien","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":151.3,"elo":1520,"date":"2011-02-05","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"L","delta":-20}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 5, 2011 Donald Cerrone L -20
Nov 20, 2010 TJ O'Brien W +17
Aug 1, 2010 Jacob Volkmann L -19
Apr 10, 2010 Matt Veach W +17
Nov 14, 2009 Dennis Siver L -39

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.95 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
38% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.39 avg 3.34
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
60% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.23 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
60% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
31% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.36 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
2 / 5
Finish rate
KO
1
20% of wins
SUB
1
20% of wins
DEC
3
60% of wins
KO: 1 (20%) 1 Sub: 1 (20%) 1 Dec: 3 (60%) 3
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
2 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1497
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.6
actual 0 vs expected