HonestElo
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Mauricio Rua

Inactive · Orthodox · 185 cm · reach 193 cm
Elo rating
1541 ±35
LCB 1495
Rank
—
—
UFC record
11-12-1
KO 8 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-3
Δ90d -2 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Jan 21, 2023
L by KO

Elo history

24 fights · tap & drag
Sep 22, 2007 — L vs Forrest Griffin Δ-25Jan 17, 2009 — W vs Mark Coleman Δ+45Apr 18, 2009 — W vs Chuck Liddell Δ+47Oct 24, 2009 — L vs Lyoto Machida Δ-24May 8, 2010 — W vs Lyoto Machida Δ+59Mar 19, 2011 — L vs Jon Jones Δ-19Aug 27, 2011 — W vs Forrest Griffin Δ+21Nov 19, 2011 — L vs Dan Henderson Δ-17Aug 4, 2012 — W vs Brandon Vera Δ+18Dec 8, 2012 — L vs Alexander Gustafsson Δ-14Aug 17, 2013 — L vs Chael Sonnen Δ-20Dec 6, 2013 — W vs James Te Huna Δ+19Mar 23, 2014 — L vs Dan Henderson Δ-20Nov 8, 2014 — L vs Ovince Saint Preux Δ-17Aug 1, 2015 — W vs Rogerio Nogueira Δ+17May 14, 2016 — W vs Corey Anderson Δ+17Mar 11, 2017 — W vs Gian Villante Δ+16Jul 22, 2018 — L vs Anthony Smith Δ-20Dec 1, 2018 — W vs Tyson Pedro Δ+16Nov 16, 2019 — D vs Paul Craig Δ-5Jul 25, 2020 — W vs Rogerio Nogueira Δ+14Nov 21, 2020 — L vs Paul Craig Δ-23May 7, 2022 — L vs Ovince Saint Preux Δ-17Jan 21, 2023 — L vs Ihor Potieria Δ-23 14351488154115941647 20102013201620192022 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":196.1,"elo":1475,"date":"2007-09-22","opp":"Forrest Griffin","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":1,"x":97.5,"y":150.9,"elo":1520,"date":"2009-01-17","opp":"Mark Coleman","result":"W","delta":45},{"i":2,"x":111.3,"y":104.2,"elo":1567,"date":"2009-04-18","opp":"Chuck Liddell","result":"W","delta":47},{"i":3,"x":140.1,"y":128.2,"elo":1543,"date":"2009-10-24","opp":"Lyoto Machida","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":4,"x":169.9,"y":69.5,"elo":1602,"date":"2010-05-08","opp":"Lyoto Machida","result":"W","delta":59},{"i":5,"x":217.8,"y":88.1,"elo":1583,"date":"2011-03-19","opp":"Jon Jones","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":6,"x":242.3,"y":67.5,"elo":1604,"date":"2011-08-27","opp":"Forrest Griffin","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":7,"x":255.1,"y":84.2,"elo":1587,"date":"2011-11-19","opp":"Dan Henderson","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":8,"x":294.5,"y":66.5,"elo":1605,"date":"2012-08-04","opp":"Brandon Vera","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":313.7,"y":80.8,"elo":1590,"date":"2012-12-08","opp":"Alexander Gustafsson","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":352,"y":101.3,"elo":1570,"date":"2013-08-17","opp":"Chael Sonnen","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":11,"x":368.9,"y":82.4,"elo":1589,"date":"2013-12-06","opp":"James Te Huna","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":12,"x":385.2,"y":102.1,"elo":1569,"date":"2014-03-23","opp":"Dan Henderson","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":13,"x":420.2,"y":119.3,"elo":1552,"date":"2014-11-08","opp":"Ovince Saint Preux","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":14,"x":460.6,"y":102.6,"elo":1568,"date":"2015-08-01","opp":"Rogerio Nogueira","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":15,"x":504.3,"y":85.3,"elo":1586,"date":"2016-05-14","opp":"Corey Anderson","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":16,"x":550.1,"y":69.3,"elo":1602,"date":"2017-03-11","opp":"Gian Villante","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":17,"x":625.9,"y":89.3,"elo":1582,"date":"2018-07-22","opp":"Anthony Smith","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":18,"x":646,"y":73.6,"elo":1597,"date":"2018-12-01","opp":"Tyson Pedro","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":19,"x":699.2,"y":78.2,"elo":1593,"date":"2019-11-16","opp":"Paul Craig","result":"D","delta":-5},{"i":20,"x":737.6,"y":63.9,"elo":1607,"date":"2020-07-25","opp":"Rogerio Nogueira","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":21,"x":755.7,"y":87,"elo":1584,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Paul Craig","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":22,"x":836.6,"y":104.5,"elo":1566,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Ovince Saint Preux","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":23,"x":876,"y":127.7,"elo":1543,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Ihor Potieria","result":"L","delta":-23}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 21, 2023 Ihor Potieria L -23
May 7, 2022 Ovince Saint Preux L -17
Nov 21, 2020 Paul Craig L -23
Jul 25, 2020 Rogerio Nogueira W +14
Nov 16, 2019 Paul Craig D -5

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.96 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
52% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.06 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
52% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.35 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
43% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
48% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.20 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
73%
8 / 11
Finish rate
KO
8
73% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
27% of wins
KO: 8 (73%) 8 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (27%) 3
Finishes by round
8 total
R1
4 50%
R2
R3
3 38%
R4
1 13%
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1517
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
11.6
actual -1 vs expected