HonestElo
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Rogerio Nogueira

Inactive · Southpaw · 188 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1541 ±39
LCB 1490
Rank
—
—
UFC record
6-7-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d -2 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Jul 25, 2020
L by Decision

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Nov 21, 2009 — W vs Luiz Cane Δ+42May 29, 2010 — W vs Jason Brilz Δ+30Sep 25, 2010 — L vs Ryan Bader Δ-25Mar 26, 2011 — L vs Phil Davis Δ-23Dec 10, 2011 — W vs Tito Ortiz Δ+42Feb 2, 2013 — W vs Rashad Evans Δ+22Jul 26, 2014 — L vs Anthony Johnson Δ-18Aug 1, 2015 — L vs Mauricio Rua Δ-17May 14, 2016 — W vs Patrick Cummins Δ+18Nov 19, 2016 — L vs Ryan Bader Δ-13Sep 22, 2018 — W vs Sam Alvey Δ+21May 11, 2019 — L vs Ryan Spann Δ-21Jul 25, 2020 — L vs Mauricio Rua Δ-14 14841520155615921628 20112013201520172019 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":150.4,"elo":1542,"date":"2009-11-21","opp":"Luiz Cane","result":"W","delta":42},{"i":1,"x":65.3,"y":106.1,"elo":1572,"date":"2010-05-29","opp":"Jason Brilz","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":91.3,"y":142.6,"elo":1547,"date":"2010-09-25","opp":"Ryan Bader","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":3,"x":131.1,"y":177.2,"elo":1524,"date":"2011-03-26","opp":"Phil Davis","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":4,"x":187.7,"y":115.5,"elo":1566,"date":"2011-12-10","opp":"Tito Ortiz","result":"W","delta":42},{"i":5,"x":279.4,"y":82.8,"elo":1588,"date":"2013-02-02","opp":"Rashad Evans","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":6,"x":397.2,"y":109.9,"elo":1570,"date":"2014-07-26","opp":"Anthony Johnson","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":7,"x":478.3,"y":134.6,"elo":1553,"date":"2015-08-01","opp":"Mauricio Rua","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":8,"x":541,"y":108.4,"elo":1571,"date":"2016-05-14","opp":"Patrick Cummins","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":582.3,"y":127.4,"elo":1558,"date":"2016-11-19","opp":"Ryan Bader","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":10,"x":729.2,"y":96.5,"elo":1579,"date":"2018-09-22","opp":"Sam Alvey","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":11,"x":779.6,"y":127.7,"elo":1557,"date":"2019-05-11","opp":"Ryan Spann","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":148.9,"elo":1543,"date":"2020-07-25","opp":"Mauricio Rua","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 25, 2020 Mauricio Rua L -14
May 11, 2019 Ryan Spann L -21
Sep 22, 2018 Sam Alvey W +21
Nov 19, 2016 Ryan Bader L -13
May 14, 2016 Patrick Cummins W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.44 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
37% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.83 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.11 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
100% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
64% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.21 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
4 / 6
Finish rate
KO
4
67% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
33% of wins
KO: 4 (67%) 4 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (33%) 2
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
3 75%
R2
1 25%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1589
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.7
actual 0 vs expected