HonestElo
← welterweight

Rick Story

Inactive · Southpaw · 175 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1601 ±34
LCB 1557
Rank
—
—
UFC record
12-7-0
KO 2 · Sub 2 · Dec 8
Streak
-1
Δ90d -13 · Δ1y -13
Last fight
Aug 20, 2016
L by KO

Elo history

19 fights · tap & drag
Jun 13, 2009 — L vs John Hathaway Δ-26Sep 19, 2009 — W vs Brian Foster Δ+36Jan 11, 2010 — W vs Jesse Lennox Δ+30Apr 10, 2010 — W vs Nick Osipczak Δ+31Aug 7, 2010 — W vs Dustin Hazelett Δ+31Dec 4, 2010 — W vs Johny Hendricks Δ+17May 28, 2011 — W vs Thiago Alves Δ+16Jun 26, 2011 — L vs Charlie Brenneman Δ-21Nov 19, 2011 — L vs Martin Kampmann Δ-18Jun 22, 2012 — W vs Brock Jardine Δ+12Oct 13, 2012 — L vs Demian Maia Δ-17Mar 16, 2013 — W vs Quinn Mulhern Δ+14May 25, 2013 — L vs Mike Pyle Δ-17Nov 16, 2013 — W vs Brian Ebersole Δ+16Mar 15, 2014 — L vs Kelvin Gastelum Δ-18Jul 16, 2014 — W vs Leonardo Mafra Δ+12Oct 4, 2014 — W vs Gunnar Nelson Δ+17May 29, 2016 — W vs Tarec Saffiedine Δ+13Aug 20, 2016 — L vs Donald Cerrone Δ-14 14341494155516151675 201120132015 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":200.9,"elo":1474,"date":"2009-06-13","opp":"John Hathaway","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":55.8,"y":169.6,"elo":1510,"date":"2009-09-19","opp":"Brian Foster","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":92.8,"y":142.9,"elo":1540,"date":"2010-01-11","opp":"Jesse Lennox","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":121.7,"y":115.4,"elo":1571,"date":"2010-04-10","opp":"Nick Osipczak","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":160.3,"y":88,"elo":1603,"date":"2010-08-07","opp":"Dustin Hazelett","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":5,"x":198.9,"y":73.4,"elo":1619,"date":"2010-12-04","opp":"Johny Hendricks","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":255.7,"y":59.1,"elo":1635,"date":"2011-05-28","opp":"Thiago Alves","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":265.2,"y":77.5,"elo":1615,"date":"2011-06-26","opp":"Charlie Brenneman","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":8,"x":312.5,"y":93.1,"elo":1597,"date":"2011-11-19","opp":"Martin Kampmann","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":9,"x":382.7,"y":82.8,"elo":1608,"date":"2012-06-22","opp":"Brock Jardine","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":10,"x":419.3,"y":97.6,"elo":1592,"date":"2012-10-13","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":11,"x":469.3,"y":85.5,"elo":1605,"date":"2013-03-16","opp":"Quinn Mulhern","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":12,"x":492,"y":100.4,"elo":1588,"date":"2013-05-25","opp":"Mike Pyle","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":13,"x":548.8,"y":86.7,"elo":1604,"date":"2013-11-16","opp":"Brian Ebersole","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":14,"x":587.5,"y":102,"elo":1587,"date":"2014-03-15","opp":"Kelvin Gastelum","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":15,"x":627.4,"y":91.2,"elo":1599,"date":"2014-07-16","opp":"Leonardo Mafra","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":16,"x":653.3,"y":76.6,"elo":1616,"date":"2014-10-04","opp":"Gunnar Nelson","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":17,"x":849.1,"y":65.3,"elo":1628,"date":"2016-05-29","opp":"Tarec Saffiedine","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":18,"x":876,"y":77.5,"elo":1615,"date":"2016-08-20","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 20, 2016 Donald Cerrone L -14
May 29, 2016 Tarec Saffiedine W +13
Oct 4, 2014 Gunnar Nelson W +17
Jul 16, 2014 Leonardo Mafra W +12
Mar 15, 2014 Kelvin Gastelum L -18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.53 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
42% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.02 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
63% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.35 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
48% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
63% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.82 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
4 / 12
Finish rate
KO
2
17% of wins
SUB
2
17% of wins
DEC
8
67% of wins
KO: 2 (17%) 2 Sub: 2 (17%) 2 Dec: 8 (67%) 8
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
1 25%
R2
3 75%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1583
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
10.0
actual +2 vs expected