HonestElo
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Aj Dobson

Inactive
Elo rating
1422
Global Elo 1466 ±34
Rank
—
—
UFC record
1-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
-1
Δ90d +17 · Δ1y +17
Last fight
Mar 23, 2024
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
50m
Avg fight time
12:23
Fights per year
1.9
Since last fight
2y 3mo

Honest Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Feb 12, 2022 — L vs Jacob Malkoun Δ-29Oct 22, 2022 — L vs Armen Petrosyan Δ-26Aug 12, 2023 — W vs Tafon Nchukwi Δ+30Mar 23, 2024 — L vs Edmen Shahbazyan Δ-26 13901410143014501470 20232024 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":191.6,"elo":1445,"date":"2022-02-12","opp":"Jacob Malkoun","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":325.6,"y":295.6,"elo":1419,"date":"2022-10-22","opp":"Armen Petrosyan","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":2,"x":600.5,"y":176.8,"elo":1448,"date":"2023-08-12","opp":"Tafon Nchukwi","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":810,"y":282.4,"elo":1422,"date":"2024-03-23","opp":"Edmen Shahbazyan","result":"L","delta":-26}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 23, 2024 Edmen Shahbazyan L -26
Aug 12, 2023 Tafon Nchukwi W +30
Oct 22, 2022 Armen Petrosyan L -26
Feb 12, 2022 Jacob Malkoun L -29

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (100%) 1

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 192 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
55% Head
  • Head 55%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 30%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
87% Distance
  • Distance 87%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 4%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
33%
of losses by finish
1 of 3
1 KO/TKO 0 Sub 2 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1503
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Tafon Nchukwi
Elo 1456 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
1.8
−0.8 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 4 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1503
1547

Top middleweight

See full rankings →
Dricus Du Plessis
#1 · Elo 1690
Khamzat Chimaev
#2 · Elo 1676
Sean Strickland C
#3 · Elo 1657
Brendan Allen
#4 · Elo 1654
Nassourdine Imavov
#5 · Elo 1648
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Aj Dobson on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.