HonestElo
← middleweight

Aj Dobson

Inactive
Elo rating
1463 ±33
LCB 1420
Rank
—
—
UFC record
1-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
-1
Δ90d +14 · Δ1y +14
Last fight
Mar 23, 2024
L by KO

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Feb 12, 2022 — L vs Jacob Malkoun Δ-29Oct 22, 2022 — L vs Armen Petrosyan Δ-26Aug 12, 2023 — W vs Tafon Nchukwi Δ+30Mar 23, 2024 — L vs Edmen Shahbazyan Δ-26 14051433146014881515 20232024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":108.5,"elo":1471,"date":"2022-02-12","opp":"Jacob Malkoun","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":302.8,"y":158.7,"elo":1445,"date":"2022-10-22","opp":"Armen Petrosyan","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":2,"x":628.1,"y":101.3,"elo":1475,"date":"2023-08-12","opp":"Tafon Nchukwi","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":152.3,"elo":1449,"date":"2024-03-23","opp":"Edmen Shahbazyan","result":"L","delta":-26}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 23, 2024 Edmen Shahbazyan L -26
Aug 12, 2023 Tafon Nchukwi W +30
Oct 22, 2022 Armen Petrosyan L -26
Feb 12, 2022 Jacob Malkoun L -29

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.84 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
45% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
5.56 avg 3.07
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
46% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.50 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
83% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
65% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (100%) 1

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1503
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
1.8
actual -1 vs expected