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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

6-1-0 UFC record 8-6-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 0
+2 Streak +1
32 Age 35
5'4" 163 cm Height 5'9" 175 cm
65" 165 cm Reach 70" 178 cm
Orthodox Stance Switch
1608 Global Elo 1537
1573 Elo rating 1494
Asu Almabayev — Notable
At a glance
Charles Johnson — Notable
At a glance
  • 90% takedown defense in last 3 fights

Asu Almabayev — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 210 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
54% Head
  • Head 54%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 22%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
65% Distance
  • Distance 65%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 24%

Charles Johnson — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 847 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
50% Head
  • Head 50%
  • Body 29%
  • Leg 20%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
81% Distance
  • Distance 81%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 5%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.31
4.77
div avg 3.86
51%
50%
div avg 47%
1.99
4.02
div avg 3.24
54%
56%
div avg 56%
4.46
0.51
div avg 1.55
43%
17%
div avg 38%
44%
69%
div avg 64%
1.49
0.34
div avg 0.73
7
1
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Asu Almabayev
33% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 2
can finish?
Charles Johnson
finished 17%
1 of 6 losses
Charles Johnson
38% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 0
can finish?
Asu Almabayev
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1547 (Asu Almabayev) vs 1529 (Charles Johnson).

Asu Almabayev red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1547
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win
Matheus Nicolau
Elo 1578 at fight time
Expected wins
3.8
+2.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1523
1569
Charles Johnson blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1529
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Joshua Van
Elo 1577 at fight time
Expected wins
6.7
+1.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 14 fights
1533
1505

Common opponents

2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    L
    Submission
    KO/TKO
    Nov 22, 2025
    Jan 24, 2026
  • W
    L
    Submission
    Decision - Split
    Aug 5, 2023
    Feb 25, 2023
Corner A recent form
Asu Almabayev
Corner B recent form
Charles Johnson
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Asu Almabayev & Charles Johnson on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.