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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

5-1-0 UFC record 10-4-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 3
+1 Streak +1
32 Age 32
6'2" 188 cm Height 6'1" 185 cm
73" 185 cm Reach 73" 185 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1593 Global Elo 1611
1551 Elo rating 1561
Shara Magomedov — Notable
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • Earned a bonus in 4 of last 5 fights
Michel Pereira — Notable
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission
  • 40% of wins finished in round 1
  • Career-best 8-fight win streak

Shara Magomedov — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 488 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
43% Head
  • Head 43%
  • Body 31%
  • Leg 26%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
79% Distance
  • Distance 79%
  • Clinch 15%
  • Ground 6%

Michel Pereira — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 664 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
47% Head
  • Head 47%
  • Body 42%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
86% Distance
  • Distance 86%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 3%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

5.93
4.50
div avg 4.47
63%
51%
div avg 51%
3.85
4.62
div avg 3.48
44%
51%
div avg 54%
0.00
1.12
div avg 1.73
0%
52%
div avg 44%
71%
73%
div avg 69%
0.00
0.71
div avg 0.52
0
1
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Shara Magomedov
40% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Michel Pereira
finished 50%
2 of 4 losses
Michel Pereira
50% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 3
can finish?
Shara Magomedov
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1514 (Shara Magomedov) vs 1529 (Michel Pereira).

Shara Magomedov red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1514
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Bruno Silva
Elo 1565 at fight time
Expected wins
3.4
+1.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1565
1493
Michel Pereira blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1529
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win
Andre Petroski
Elo 1636 at fight time
Expected wins
8.0
+2.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 14 fights
1536
1534

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

Corner A recent form
Shara Magomedov
Corner B recent form
Michel Pereira
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Shara Magomedov & Michel Pereira on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.