Other bouts 7
- 1bantamweight MainMalcolm WellmakervsOtari Tanzilovi
- 2lightweightMatheus CamilovsJai Herbert
- 4women's bantamweightDaria ZhelezniakovavsAlice Pereira
- 5light heavyweightFelipe FrancovsAlexander Poppeck
- 6flyweightErnesta KareckaitevsMelissa Gatto
- 7light heavyweightJulius WalkervsGerald Meerschaert
- 8heavyweightRj HarrisvsAllen Frye Jr.
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
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Independent UFC analytics
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Other fights on this card · 7
Notable
Cross-division matchup: the model gives Prado +60 Elo for a ~15 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.
Has never been finished — all 5 losses went to the scorecards.
Both enter off a loss (Apr 2026 / May 2026).
Fewer than 4 UFC fights — the rating is provisional and the uncertainty band is wide.
Tale of the tape
| 1-5-0 | UFC record | 0-1-0 |
| KO 1 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 0 |
| -4 | Streak | -1 |
| 24 | Age | 22 |
| 5'10" 178 cm | Height | 5'9" 175 cm |
| 69" 175 cm | Reach | 69" 175 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1423 | Global Elo | 1514 |
| 1380 | Elo rating | 1488 |
Francisco Prado — Notable ▼
- 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
- Has never been finished — durability signal
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
- 100% of wins by KO/TKO
Artur Minev — Notable ▼
Francisco Prado — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 291 landed total · career
- Head 50%
- Body 22%
- Leg 27%
- Distance 79%
- Clinch 7%
- Ground 14%
Artur Minev — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 8 landed total · career
- Head 25%
- Body 63%
- Leg 13%
- Distance 38%
- Clinch 63%
- Ground 0%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Carlos Leal8.75
- 2Daniil Donchenko8.07
- 3Daniel Rodriguez7.18
- 4Max Holloway6.92
- 5Jacobe Smith6.85
- 1Kiefer Crosbie64%
- 2Jacobe Smith63%
- 3Daniil Donchenko62%
- 4Chidi Njokuani62%
- 5Gunnar Nelson61%
- 1Islam Makhachev1.42
- 2Jeremiah Wells1.43
- 3Seokhyeon Ko1.47
- 4Michael Page1.57
- 5Michael Chiesa1.73
- 1Daniil Donchenko70%
- 2Seokhyeon Ko65%
- 3Gabriel Bonfim64%
- 4Muslim Salikhov62%
- 5Michael Page62%
- 1Myktybek Orolbai8.22
- 2Themba Gorimbo4.52
- 3Jacobe Smith4.52
- 4Rinat Fakhretdinov3.91
- 5Colby Covington3.64
- 1Carlos Prates100%
- 2Jacobe Smith100%
- 3Themba Gorimbo63%
- 4Myktybek Orolbai60%
- 5Seokhyeon Ko59%
- 1Jacobe Smith100%
- 2Charles Radtke100%
- 3Kevin Jousset100%
- 4Rinat Fakhretdinov92%
- 5Islam Makhachev91%
- 1Preston Parsons2.31
- 2Mickey Gall1.58
- 3Ramiz Brahimaj1.44
- 4Jeremiah Wells1.31
- 5Shavkat Rakhmonov1.20
- 1Seokhyeon Ko8.40
- 2Rinat Fakhretdinov8.11
- 3Myktybek Orolbai8.08
- 4Themba Gorimbo7.92
- 5Charles Radtke7.71
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Francisco Prado has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1531 vs 1500, 0 quality wins to 0.
- Apr 11, 2026
- Jul 19, 2025
- Feb 8, 2025
- Feb 24, 2024
- Jul 15, 2023
- May 16, 2026