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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Poppeck +102 Elo for a ~35 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Franco

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Franco

Fewer than 4 UFC fights — the rating is provisional and the uncertainty band is wide.

Poppeck

Fewer than 4 UFC fights — the rating is provisional and the uncertainty band is wide.

Tale of the tape

1-1-0 UFC record 0-1-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
+1 Streak -1
25 Age 34
6'1" 185 cm Height 6'2" 188 cm
76" 193 cm Reach
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1520 Global Elo 1524
1467 Elo rating 1498
Felipe Franco — Notable
At a glance
  • Performance of the Night in last fight
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 86% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Alexander Poppeck — Notable

Felipe Franco — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 60 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
85% Head
  • Head 85%
  • Body 13%
  • Leg 2%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
45% Ground
  • Distance 42%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 45%

Alexander Poppeck — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 8 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
63% Leg
  • Head 25%
  • Body 13%
  • Leg 63%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
100% Distance
  • Distance 100%
  • Clinch 0%
  • Ground 0%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.77
3.38
div avg 4.76
52%
44%
div avg 51%
2.08
4.23
div avg 4.12
50%
38%
div avg 52%
2.08
0.00
div avg 1.35
43%
div avg 39%
86%
div avg 71%
0.00
0.00
div avg 0.58
3
0
div avg 2

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Felipe Franco
100% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Alexander Poppeck
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses
Alexander Poppeck
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Felipe Franco
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Felipe Franco has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1533 vs 1500, 0 quality wins to 0.

Felipe Franco red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1533
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
0.9
+0.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 2 fights
1567
1500
Alexander Poppeck blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1500
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 0 UFC wins
Toughest win
Expected wins
0.5
−0.5 below schedule
Corner A recent form
Felipe Franco
Corner B recent form
Alexander Poppeck
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Felipe Franco & Alexander Poppeck on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.