HonestElo
← middleweight

Antonio Carlos Junior

Inactive · Orthodox · 188 cm · reach 201 cm
Elo rating
1550 ±34
LCB 1506
Rank
—
—
UFC record
7-5-0
KO 0 · Sub 5 · Dec 2
Streak
-3
Δ90d -2 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Jan 23, 2021
L by Decision

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
May 31, 2014 — W vs Vitor Miranda Δ+36Dec 20, 2014 — L vs Patrick Cummins Δ-28Jun 27, 2015 — W vs Eddie Gordon Δ+30Mar 19, 2016 — L vs Daniel Kelly Δ-32Sep 17, 2016 — W vs Leonardo Guimaraes Δ+30Dec 30, 2016 — W vs Marvin Vettori Δ+16Jun 3, 2017 — W vs Eric Spicely Δ+18Oct 28, 2017 — W vs Jack Marshman Δ+17Apr 14, 2018 — W vs Tim Boetsch Δ+18May 18, 2019 — L vs Ian Heinisch Δ-19Sep 14, 2019 — L vs Uriah Hall Δ-18Jan 23, 2021 — L vs Brad Tavares Δ-14 14661510155515991643 201620182020 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":152.1,"elo":1536,"date":"2014-05-31","opp":"Vitor Miranda","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":1,"x":95.2,"y":186.1,"elo":1508,"date":"2014-12-20","opp":"Patrick Cummins","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":161.5,"y":150.2,"elo":1538,"date":"2015-06-27","opp":"Eddie Gordon","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":254.8,"y":188.3,"elo":1506,"date":"2016-03-19","opp":"Daniel Kelly","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":4,"x":318.6,"y":152.9,"elo":1535,"date":"2016-09-17","opp":"Leonardo Guimaraes","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":355.1,"y":134.1,"elo":1551,"date":"2016-12-30","opp":"Marvin Vettori","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":409.5,"y":112.6,"elo":1569,"date":"2017-06-03","opp":"Eric Spicely","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":461,"y":92.8,"elo":1586,"date":"2017-10-28","opp":"Jack Marshman","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":520,"y":71.7,"elo":1603,"date":"2018-04-14","opp":"Tim Boetsch","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":659.9,"y":94.5,"elo":1584,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Ian Heinisch","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":10,"x":701.7,"y":116,"elo":1566,"date":"2019-09-14","opp":"Uriah Hall","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":133.3,"elo":1552,"date":"2021-01-23","opp":"Brad Tavares","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 23, 2021 Brad Tavares L -14
Sep 14, 2019 Uriah Hall L -18
May 18, 2019 Ian Heinisch L -19
Apr 14, 2018 Tim Boetsch W +18
Oct 28, 2017 Jack Marshman W +17

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.86 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
43% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.06 avg 3.07
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.29 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
39% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
53% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.77 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
7 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
71%
5 / 7
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
5
71% of wins
DEC
2
29% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 5 (71%) 5 Dec: 2 (29%) 2
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
2 40%
R2
1 20%
R3
2 40%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1556
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.3
actual +1 vs expected