HonestElo
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Tom Lawlor

Inactive · Southpaw · 183 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1531 ±39
LCB 1481
Rank
—
—
UFC record
6-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 2 · Dec 2
Streak
-1
Δ90d +1 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Mar 5, 2016
L by Decision

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Dec 13, 2008 — W vs Kyle Kingsbury Δ+29Jul 11, 2009 — W vs CB Dollaway Δ+34Jan 11, 2010 — L vs Aaron Simpson Δ-29May 8, 2010 — L vs Joe Doerksen Δ-44Oct 23, 2010 — W vs Patrick Cote Δ+27Nov 19, 2011 — L vs Chris Weidman Δ-16May 15, 2012 — W vs Jason MacDonald Δ+19Nov 17, 2012 — L vs Francis Carmont Δ-13Apr 6, 2013 — W vs Michael Kuiper Δ+18Jul 25, 2015 — W vs Gian Villante Δ+19Mar 5, 2016 — L vs Corey Anderson Δ-14 14501488152615641602 2010201220142016 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":126,"elo":1529,"date":"2008-12-13","opp":"Kyle Kingsbury","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":91.8,"y":79.5,"elo":1562,"date":"2009-07-11","opp":"CB Dollaway","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":2,"x":151.2,"y":119.2,"elo":1534,"date":"2010-01-11","opp":"Aaron Simpson","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":189,"y":180.5,"elo":1490,"date":"2010-05-08","opp":"Joe Doerksen","result":"L","delta":-44},{"i":4,"x":243.2,"y":142.7,"elo":1517,"date":"2010-10-23","opp":"Patrick Cote","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":5,"x":369.8,"y":164.9,"elo":1501,"date":"2011-11-19","opp":"Chris Weidman","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":6,"x":427.2,"y":139,"elo":1520,"date":"2012-05-15","opp":"Jason MacDonald","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":7,"x":487.3,"y":156.9,"elo":1507,"date":"2012-11-17","opp":"Francis Carmont","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":8,"x":532.5,"y":131.3,"elo":1525,"date":"2013-04-06","opp":"Michael Kuiper","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":803.7,"y":104.4,"elo":1544,"date":"2015-07-25","opp":"Gian Villante","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":124.4,"elo":1530,"date":"2016-03-05","opp":"Corey Anderson","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 5, 2016 Corey Anderson L -14
Jul 25, 2015 Gian Villante W +19
Apr 6, 2013 Michael Kuiper W +18
Nov 17, 2012 Francis Carmont L -13
May 15, 2012 Jason MacDonald W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.03 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
42% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.96 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
61% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.00 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
32% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
58% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.13 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
4 / 6
Finish rate
KO
2
33% of wins
SUB
2
33% of wins
DEC
2
33% of wins
KO: 2 (33%) 2 Sub: 2 (33%) 2 Dec: 2 (33%) 2
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
2 50%
R2
2 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1545
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.4
actual +1 vs expected