HonestElo
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Phil Davis

Inactive · Orthodox · 188 cm · reach 201 cm
Elo rating
1615 ±32
LCB 1574
Rank
—
—
UFC record
9-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 3 · Dec 6
Streak
-1
Δ90d -27 · Δ1y -27
Last fight
Jan 24, 2015
L by Decision

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Feb 6, 2010 — W vs Brian Stann Δ+31Apr 10, 2010 — W vs Alexander Gustafsson Δ+33Aug 7, 2010 — W vs Rodney Wallace Δ+19Nov 20, 2010 — W vs Tim Boetsch Δ+28Mar 26, 2011 — W vs Rogerio Nogueira Δ+24Jan 28, 2012 — L vs Rashad Evans Δ-12Oct 13, 2012 — W vs Wagner Prado Δ+12Apr 27, 2013 — W vs Vinny Magalhaes Δ+9Aug 3, 2013 — W vs Lyoto Machida Δ+18Apr 26, 2014 — L vs Anthony Johnson Δ-20Oct 25, 2014 — W vs Glover Teixeira Δ+16Jan 24, 2015 — L vs Ryan Bader Δ-16 14911544159716491702 20112012201320142015 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":195.8,"elo":1531,"date":"2010-02-06","opp":"Brian Stann","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":1,"x":53.6,"y":162.3,"elo":1565,"date":"2010-04-10","opp":"Alexander Gustafsson","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":109.5,"y":143.1,"elo":1584,"date":"2010-08-07","opp":"Rodney Wallace","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":3,"x":158.9,"y":114.5,"elo":1612,"date":"2010-11-20","opp":"Tim Boetsch","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":218.1,"y":90.9,"elo":1636,"date":"2011-03-26","opp":"Rogerio Nogueira","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":5,"x":362.8,"y":103.2,"elo":1623,"date":"2012-01-28","opp":"Rashad Evans","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":6,"x":484.5,"y":91.1,"elo":1635,"date":"2012-10-13","opp":"Wagner Prado","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":7,"x":576.6,"y":81.8,"elo":1645,"date":"2013-04-27","opp":"Vinny Magalhaes","result":"W","delta":9},{"i":8,"x":622.7,"y":64.2,"elo":1662,"date":"2013-08-03","opp":"Lyoto Machida","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":747.7,"y":84.5,"elo":1642,"date":"2014-04-26","opp":"Anthony Johnson","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":10,"x":833.2,"y":68,"elo":1658,"date":"2014-10-25","opp":"Glover Teixeira","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":84.4,"elo":1642,"date":"2015-01-24","opp":"Ryan Bader","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 24, 2015 Ryan Bader L -16
Oct 25, 2014 Glover Teixeira W +16
Apr 26, 2014 Anthony Johnson L -20
Aug 3, 2013 Lyoto Machida W +18
Apr 27, 2013 Vinny Magalhaes W +9

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.83 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
35% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.31 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
72% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.74 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
36% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
72% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.53 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
3 / 9
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
3
33% of wins
DEC
6
67% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 3 (33%) 3 Dec: 6 (67%) 6
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
1 33%
R2
2 67%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1606
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.6
actual +2 vs expected