HonestElo
← light heavyweight

Ryan Bader

Inactive · Orthodox · 188 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1653 ±28
LCB 1617
Rank
—
—
UFC record
15-5-0
KO 5 · Sub 1 · Dec 9
Streak
+2
Δ90d -39 · Δ1y -39
Last fight
Nov 19, 2016
W by KO

Elo history

20 fights · tap & drag
Dec 13, 2008 — W vs Vinny Magalhaes Δ+41Apr 1, 2009 — W vs Carmelo Marrero Δ+23Oct 24, 2009 — W vs Eric Schafer Δ+27Feb 20, 2010 — W vs Keith Jardine Δ+29Sep 25, 2010 — W vs Rogerio Nogueira Δ+25Feb 5, 2011 — L vs Jon Jones Δ-18Jul 2, 2011 — L vs Tito Ortiz Δ-19Nov 19, 2011 — W vs Jason Brilz Δ+13Feb 25, 2012 — W vs Quinton Jackson Δ+16Aug 4, 2012 — L vs Lyoto Machida Δ-18Jan 26, 2013 — W vs Vladimir Matyushenko Δ+15Sep 4, 2013 — L vs Glover Teixeira Δ-19Dec 6, 2013 — W vs Anthony Perosh Δ+11Jun 14, 2014 — W vs Rafael Cavalcante Δ+11Aug 16, 2014 — W vs Ovince Saint Preux Δ+15Jan 24, 2015 — W vs Phil Davis Δ+16Oct 3, 2015 — W vs Rashad Evans Δ+18Jan 30, 2016 — L vs Anthony Johnson Δ-22Sep 3, 2016 — W vs Ilir Latifi Δ+13Nov 19, 2016 — W vs Rogerio Nogueira Δ+13 15011559161716741732 2010201220142016 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":199.2,"elo":1541,"date":"2008-12-13","opp":"Vinny Magalhaes","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":56,"y":177.9,"elo":1565,"date":"2009-04-01","opp":"Carmelo Marrero","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":2,"x":116.6,"y":153.5,"elo":1591,"date":"2009-10-24","opp":"Eric Schafer","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":3,"x":151.6,"y":126.6,"elo":1620,"date":"2010-02-20","opp":"Keith Jardine","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":215.4,"y":103.8,"elo":1645,"date":"2010-09-25","opp":"Rogerio Nogueira","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":5,"x":254.5,"y":120.5,"elo":1627,"date":"2011-02-05","opp":"Jon Jones","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":6,"x":297.7,"y":138.1,"elo":1608,"date":"2011-07-02","opp":"Tito Ortiz","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":338.9,"y":125.8,"elo":1621,"date":"2011-11-19","opp":"Jason Brilz","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":8,"x":367.7,"y":110.8,"elo":1638,"date":"2012-02-25","opp":"Quinton Jackson","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":415,"y":127.2,"elo":1620,"date":"2012-08-04","opp":"Lyoto Machida","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":10,"x":466.5,"y":113.1,"elo":1635,"date":"2013-01-26","opp":"Vladimir Matyushenko","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":11,"x":531.4,"y":130.3,"elo":1616,"date":"2013-09-04","opp":"Glover Teixeira","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":12,"x":558.8,"y":119.8,"elo":1628,"date":"2013-12-06","opp":"Anthony Perosh","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":13,"x":614.6,"y":110,"elo":1639,"date":"2014-06-14","opp":"Rafael Cavalcante","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":14,"x":633.2,"y":96.2,"elo":1654,"date":"2014-08-16","opp":"Ovince Saint Preux","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":15,"x":680.5,"y":81.2,"elo":1670,"date":"2015-01-24","opp":"Phil Davis","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":16,"x":754.6,"y":64.8,"elo":1688,"date":"2015-10-03","opp":"Rashad Evans","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":17,"x":789.6,"y":85,"elo":1666,"date":"2016-01-30","opp":"Anthony Johnson","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":18,"x":853.4,"y":72.6,"elo":1679,"date":"2016-09-03","opp":"Ilir Latifi","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":19,"x":876,"y":60.8,"elo":1692,"date":"2016-11-19","opp":"Rogerio Nogueira","result":"W","delta":13}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 19, 2016 Rogerio Nogueira W +13
Sep 3, 2016 Ilir Latifi W +13
Jan 30, 2016 Anthony Johnson L -22
Oct 3, 2015 Rashad Evans W +18
Jan 24, 2015 Phil Davis W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.46 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
43% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.21 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
72% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.94 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
44% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
81% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.38 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
6 / 15
Finish rate
KO
5
33% of wins
SUB
1
7% of wins
DEC
9
60% of wins
KO: 5 (33%) 5 Sub: 1 (7%) Dec: 9 (60%) 9
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
3 50%
R2
1 17%
R3
2 33%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1626
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
11.1
actual +4 vs expected