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Evan Elder "The Phenom"

Active #52 lightweight · age 29 · Switch · 5'10" 178 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 72" 183 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight UFC win streak
Elo rating
1478
Global Elo 1531 ±41
Rank
#52
top 58% of division
UFC record
3-2-0
KO 0 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
Apr 26, 2025
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 2m
Avg fight time
12:29
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
1.7
Since last fight
1y 2mo

Honest Elo history

5 fights · tap & drag
Apr 23, 2022 — L vs Preston Parsons Δ-31Feb 18, 2023 — L vs Nazim Sadykhov Δ-26Jul 15, 2023 — W vs Genaro Valdez Δ+29Jul 13, 2024 — W vs Darrius Flowers Δ+31Apr 26, 2025 — W vs Gauge Young Δ+29 1350137514001425145014751500 202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":269.2,"elo":1416,"date":"2022-04-23","opp":"Preston Parsons","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":1,"x":287.2,"y":325.1,"elo":1390,"date":"2023-02-18","opp":"Nazim Sadykhov","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":2,"x":383.5,"y":264.3,"elo":1418,"date":"2023-07-15","opp":"Genaro Valdez","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":622,"y":198.2,"elo":1449,"date":"2024-07-13","opp":"Darrius Flowers","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":810,"y":137.1,"elo":1478,"date":"2025-04-26","opp":"Gauge Young","result":"W","delta":29}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 26, 2025 Gauge Young W +29
Jul 13, 2024 Darrius Flowers W +31
Jul 15, 2023 Genaro Valdez W +29
Feb 18, 2023 Nazim Sadykhov L -26
Apr 23, 2022 Preston Parsons L -31

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
1 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
1
33% of wins
DEC
2
67% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 1 (33%) 1 Dec: 2 (67%) 2
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 353 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
46% Head
  • Head 46%
  • Body 38%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
92% Distance
  • Distance 92%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 4%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
50%
of losses by finish
1 of 2
1 KO/TKO 0 Sub 1 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1473
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Gauge Young
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
2.5
+0.5 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 5 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1475
1500

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Evan Elder on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.