HonestElo
← womens flyweight

Carli Judice

Active #14 womens flyweight
Elo rating
1558 ±38
LCB 1509
Rank
#14
top 36% of division
UFC record
3-1-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
+3
Δ90d +26 · Δ1y +55
Last fight
Feb 21, 2026
W by Decision

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Jun 15, 2024 — L vs Gabriella Fernandes Δ-34Mar 15, 2025 — W vs Yuneisy Duben Δ+36Jul 19, 2025 — W vs Nicolle Caliari Δ+30Feb 21, 2026 — W vs Juliana Miller Δ+26 14261469151215551598 20252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":186.6,"elo":1466,"date":"2024-06-15","opp":"Gabriella Fernandes","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":1,"x":401.6,"y":141.7,"elo":1503,"date":"2025-03-15","opp":"Yuneisy Duben","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":575.9,"y":104.9,"elo":1533,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Nicolle Caliari","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":73.4,"elo":1558,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Juliana Miller","result":"W","delta":26}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 21, 2026 Juliana Miller W +26
Jul 19, 2025 Nicolle Caliari W +30
Mar 15, 2025 Yuneisy Duben W +36
Jun 15, 2024 Gabriella Fernandes L -34

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
7.48 avg 3.65
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 45%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.02 avg 3.54
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
60% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.60 avg 1.35
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
83% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.45
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
2 / 3
Finish rate
KO
2
67% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
33% of wins
KO: 2 (67%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (33%) 1
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1476
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.1
actual +1 vs expected