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Regina Tarin "Kill Bill"

Active Provisional catchweight bout (unranked) · age 21 · Southpaw · 5'7" 170 cm · 135 lb 61 kg · reach 66" 168 cm
Upcoming bout Sat, Sep 12
vs JJ Aldrich · UFC Fight Night Glendale
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
Elo rating
1474
Global Elo 1500 ±20
Rank
—
—
UFC record
1-0-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
+1
Δ90d -29 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
Feb 28, 2026
Win by Decision
UFC debut the one fight we've seen

Won by decision

Debut opponent
Ernesta Kareckaite
1502
Elo at fight time · #30

The model gave Tarin a 50% pre-fight chance against this opponent. He came through.

Debut performance
7.6
Strikes landed / min
48%
Striking accuracy
58%
Striking defense
1.0m
Control / 15 min

This rating is provisional — built from a single UFC fight, so its uncertainty band is wide (σ ≈ 20). It will sharpen with every bout, and can move a lot early on. How the model handles thin samples →

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…
vs Compare across divisions →

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Honest Elo history

1 fights · tap & drag
Feb 28, 2026 — W vs Ernesta Kareckaite Δ+29 145014601470148014901500 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":254.5,"elo":1474,"date":"2026-02-28","opp":"Ernesta Kareckaite","result":"W","delta":29}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 28, 2026 Ernesta Kareckaite W +29
1 post-fight bonus
  • Fight of the Night ×1
$100,000 in bonus money

UFC awards a discretionary bonus for the night's best fight and finishes. Regina Tarin has earned 1. The payout was $50,000 from 2014 to 2025 and $100,000 from 2026; select cards have paid more.

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (100%) 1

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 114 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
67% Head
  • Head 67%
  • Body 30%
  • Leg 4%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
80% Distance
  • Distance 80%
  • Clinch 20%
  • Ground 0%

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1502
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Ernesta Kareckaite
Elo 1502 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
0.5
+0.5 wins above what this schedule implies
Career at a glance
Octagon time
15m
Avg fight time
15:00
Since last fight
6mo
Bonuses
1
vs Compare Regina Tarin with any fighter any division · any era · honest simulation →
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Regina Tarin on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.