HonestElo
← womens flyweight

Ernesta Kareckaite

Active #29 womens flyweight
Elo rating
1473 ±41
LCB 1420
Rank
#29
top 72% of division
UFC record
1-2-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
-1
Δ90d -29 · Δ1y -29
Last fight
Feb 28, 2026
L by Decision

Elo history

3 fights · tap & drag
May 4, 2024 — L vs Dione Barbosa Δ-29Jan 11, 2025 — W vs Nicolle Caliari Δ+31Feb 28, 2026 — L vs Regina Tarin Δ-29 14311459148715151542 20252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":159.7,"elo":1471,"date":"2024-05-04","opp":"Dione Barbosa","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":346.9,"y":100.3,"elo":1502,"date":"2025-01-11","opp":"Nicolle Caliari","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":876,"y":155.5,"elo":1473,"date":"2026-02-28","opp":"Regina Tarin","result":"L","delta":-29}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 28, 2026 Regina Tarin L -29
Jan 11, 2025 Nicolle Caliari W +31
May 4, 2024 Dione Barbosa L -29

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.62 avg 3.82
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
40% avg 45%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.89 avg 3.48
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 57%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.67 avg 1.36
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
67% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
79% avg 67%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.38
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (100%) 1

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1500
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
1.5
actual 0 vs expected