HonestElo
← womens flyweight

Valentina Shevchenko C

Active #1 womens flyweight · Southpaw · 165 cm · reach 168 cm
Elo rating
1728 ±35
LCB 1683
Rank
#1
top 1% of division
UFC record
15-3-1
KO 4 · Sub 2 · Dec 9
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +40
Last fight
Nov 15, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

19 fights · tap & drag
Dec 19, 2015 — W vs Sarah Kaufman Δ+29Mar 5, 2016 — L vs Amanda Nunes Δ-24Jul 23, 2016 — W vs Holly Holm Δ+34Jan 28, 2017 — W vs Julianna Pena Δ+41Sep 9, 2017 — L vs Amanda Nunes Δ-29Feb 3, 2018 — W vs Priscila Cachoeira Δ+16Dec 8, 2018 — W vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk Δ+25Jun 8, 2019 — W vs Jessica Eye Δ+16Aug 10, 2019 — W vs Liz Carmouche Δ+15Feb 8, 2020 — W vs Katlyn Cerminara Δ+21Nov 21, 2020 — W vs Jennifer Maia Δ+15Apr 24, 2021 — W vs Jessica Andrade Δ+20Sep 25, 2021 — W vs Lauren Murphy Δ+15Jun 11, 2022 — W vs Taila Santos Δ+15Mar 4, 2023 — L vs Alexa Grasso Δ-31Sep 16, 2023 — D vs Alexa Grasso Δ-4Sep 14, 2024 — W vs Alexa Grasso Δ+17May 10, 2025 — W vs Manon Fiorot Δ+19Nov 15, 2025 — W vs Zhang Weili Δ+21 14641540161616921768 20172019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":191.1,"elo":1529,"date":"2015-12-19","opp":"Sarah Kaufman","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":42.1,"y":208.1,"elo":1504,"date":"2016-03-05","opp":"Amanda Nunes","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":2,"x":75.1,"y":184.3,"elo":1538,"date":"2016-07-23","opp":"Holly Holm","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":119.6,"y":156,"elo":1579,"date":"2017-01-28","opp":"Julianna Pena","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":4,"x":172.3,"y":176.5,"elo":1550,"date":"2017-09-09","opp":"Amanda Nunes","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":5,"x":206.9,"y":165.4,"elo":1565,"date":"2018-02-03","opp":"Priscila Cachoeira","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":279.4,"y":147.8,"elo":1591,"date":"2018-12-08","opp":"Joanna Jedrzejczyk","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":7,"x":322.3,"y":136.7,"elo":1607,"date":"2019-06-08","opp":"Jessica Eye","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":337.1,"y":126.6,"elo":1621,"date":"2019-08-10","opp":"Liz Carmouche","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":380,"y":112,"elo":1642,"date":"2020-02-08","opp":"Katlyn Cerminara","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":10,"x":447.5,"y":101.9,"elo":1656,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Jennifer Maia","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":11,"x":483.8,"y":88.3,"elo":1676,"date":"2021-04-24","opp":"Jessica Andrade","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":12,"x":520,"y":77.5,"elo":1691,"date":"2021-09-25","opp":"Lauren Murphy","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":13,"x":581,"y":67.4,"elo":1706,"date":"2022-06-11","opp":"Taila Santos","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":14,"x":643.6,"y":89,"elo":1675,"date":"2023-03-04","opp":"Alexa Grasso","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":15,"x":689.8,"y":91.4,"elo":1671,"date":"2023-09-16","opp":"Alexa Grasso","result":"D","delta":-4},{"i":16,"x":775.5,"y":79.7,"elo":1688,"date":"2024-09-14","opp":"Alexa Grasso","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":17,"x":831.5,"y":66.2,"elo":1708,"date":"2025-05-10","opp":"Manon Fiorot","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":18,"x":876,"y":51.9,"elo":1728,"date":"2025-11-15","opp":"Zhang Weili","result":"W","delta":21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 15, 2025 Zhang Weili W +21
May 10, 2025 Manon Fiorot W +19
Sep 14, 2024 Alexa Grasso W +17
Sep 16, 2023 Alexa Grasso D -4
Mar 4, 2023 Alexa Grasso L -31

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.93 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
53% avg 45%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.94 avg 3.61
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
64% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.56 avg 1.28
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
62% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
76% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.28 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
6 / 15
Finish rate
KO
4
27% of wins
SUB
2
13% of wins
DEC
9
60% of wins
KO: 4 (27%) 4 Sub: 2 (13%) 2 Dec: 9 (60%) 9
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
R2
4 67%
R3
1 17%
R4
1 17%
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1640
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
10.3
actual +5 vs expected