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Casey O'Neill "King"

Active #11 womens flyweight · age 28 · Orthodox · 5'6" 168 cm · 125 lb 57 kg · reach 69" 175 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1543
Global Elo 1586 ±34
Rank
#11
top 28% of division
UFC record
6-2-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
+2
Δ90d +17 · Δ1y +17
Last fight
Mar 28, 2026
Win by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 26m
Avg fight time
10:44
Bonuses
2
Fights per year
1.6
Ground control
22m
Since last fight
3mo

Honest Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Feb 20, 2021 — W vs Shana Dobson Δ+31Jun 19, 2021 — W vs Lara Procopio Δ+31Oct 2, 2021 — W vs Antonina Shevchenko Δ+29Feb 12, 2022 — W vs Roxanne Modafferi Δ+19Mar 18, 2023 — L vs Jennifer Maia Δ-35Dec 16, 2023 — L vs Ariane Da Silva Δ-22Aug 17, 2024 — W vs Luana Santos Δ+18Mar 28, 2026 — W vs Gabriella Fernandes Δ+17 1450147515001525155015751600 20222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":330.6,"elo":1487,"date":"2021-02-20","opp":"Shana Dobson","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":1,"x":136,"y":265.6,"elo":1518,"date":"2021-06-19","opp":"Lara Procopio","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":176.6,"y":204.1,"elo":1547,"date":"2021-10-02","opp":"Antonina Shevchenko","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":228,"y":163.4,"elo":1566,"date":"2022-02-12","opp":"Roxanne Modafferi","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":4,"x":382.3,"y":238.1,"elo":1531,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Jennifer Maia","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":5,"x":487.9,"y":285,"elo":1509,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Ariane Da Silva","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":6,"x":582.6,"y":247.7,"elo":1526,"date":"2024-08-17","opp":"Luana Santos","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":810,"y":212.2,"elo":1543,"date":"2026-03-28","opp":"Gabriella Fernandes","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 28, 2026 Gabriella Fernandes W +17
Aug 17, 2024 Luana Santos W +18
Dec 16, 2023 Ariane Da Silva L -22
Mar 18, 2023 Jennifer Maia L -35
Feb 12, 2022 Roxanne Modafferi W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
4 / 6
Finish rate
KO
3
50% of wins
SUB
1
17% of wins
DEC
2
33% of wins
KO: 3 (50%) 3 Sub: 1 (17%) 1 Dec: 2 (33%) 2
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
1 25%
R2
2 50%
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 677 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
77% Head
  • Head 77%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 9%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
81% Distance
  • Distance 81%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 14%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
50%
of losses by finish
1 of 2
0 KO/TKO 1 Sub 1 Dec Never been KO'd

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1526
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Luana Santos
Elo 1585 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.5
+1.5 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 8 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1474
1536

Top womens flyweight

See full rankings →
Valentina Shevchenko C
#1 · Elo 1683
Natalia Silva
#2 · Elo 1652
Erin Blanchfield
#3 · Elo 1651
Manon Fiorot
#4 · Elo 1641
Zhang Weili
#5 · Elo 1637
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Casey O'Neill on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.