HonestElo
← womens flyweight

Casey O'Neill

Active #11 womens flyweight · 168 cm · reach 175 cm
Elo rating
1586 ±35
LCB 1541
Rank
#11
top 28% of division
UFC record
6-2-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
+2
Δ90d +17 · Δ1y +17
Last fight
Mar 28, 2026
W by KO

Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Feb 20, 2021 — W vs Shana Dobson Δ+31Jun 19, 2021 — W vs Lara Procopio Δ+31Oct 2, 2021 — W vs Antonina Shevchenko Δ+29Feb 12, 2022 — W vs Roxanne Modafferi Δ+19Mar 18, 2023 — L vs Jennifer Maia Δ-35Dec 16, 2023 — L vs Ariane Da Silva Δ-22Aug 17, 2024 — W vs Luana Santos Δ+18Mar 28, 2026 — W vs Gabriella Fernandes Δ+17 14911530157016101649 20222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":182.5,"elo":1531,"date":"2021-02-20","opp":"Shana Dobson","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":1,"x":78.5,"y":141.6,"elo":1561,"date":"2021-06-19","opp":"Lara Procopio","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":126.5,"y":103.1,"elo":1590,"date":"2021-10-02","opp":"Antonina Shevchenko","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":187.4,"y":77.5,"elo":1609,"date":"2022-02-12","opp":"Roxanne Modafferi","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":4,"x":369.9,"y":124.4,"elo":1574,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Jennifer Maia","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":5,"x":494.8,"y":153.8,"elo":1552,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Ariane Da Silva","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":6,"x":606.9,"y":130.4,"elo":1570,"date":"2024-08-17","opp":"Luana Santos","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":876,"y":108.2,"elo":1586,"date":"2026-03-28","opp":"Gabriella Fernandes","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 28, 2026 Gabriella Fernandes W +17
Aug 17, 2024 Luana Santos W +18
Dec 16, 2023 Ariane Da Silva L -22
Mar 18, 2023 Jennifer Maia L -35
Feb 12, 2022 Roxanne Modafferi W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
7.13 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
52% avg 45%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
5.00 avg 3.50
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
58% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.26 avg 1.33
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
35% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
70% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.63 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
4 / 6
Finish rate
KO
3
50% of wins
SUB
1
17% of wins
DEC
2
33% of wins
KO: 3 (50%) 3 Sub: 1 (17%) 1 Dec: 2 (33%) 2
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
1 25%
R2
2 50%
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1526
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.5
actual +1 vs expected