Other bouts 8
- 1light heavyweight MainMagomed AnkalaevvsKhalil Rountree Jr.
- 3heavyweightRizvan KunievvsTyrell Fortune
- 4heavyweightValter WalkervsThomas Petersen
- 5Not linkedlight heavyweightMagomed TuchalovvsBrendson Ribeiro
- 6flyweightSteve ErcegvsRamazan Temirov
- 7welterweightIslam DulatovvsWellington Turman
- 8lightweightIsmael BonfimvsAxel Sola
- 9light heavyweightUran SatybaldievvsDustin Jacoby
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
Share your result
Pick how you'd like to share. Copy image works in most chat / social apps — copy here, then paste into the post directly. Download saves a PNG you can attach manually.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 7
Tale of the tape
| 8-1-0 | UFC record | 3-0-0 |
| KO 1 · Sub 2 | Finishes | KO 1 · Sub 0 |
| +2 | Streak | +3 |
| 30 | Age | 27 |
| 5'8" 173 cm | Height | 5'5" 165 cm |
| 69" 175 cm | Reach | 67" 170 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1683 | Global Elo | 1598 |
| 1649 | Elo rating | 1572 |
Umar Nurmagomedov — Notable ▼
- Has never been finished — durability signal
David Martinez — Notable ▼
- 3-fight UFC win streak — still undefeated
- Top 5 · bantamweightTakedown Defense
- 1David Martinez100%
- 2Rinya Nakamura100%
- 3Quang Le100%
- 4Marcus Mcghee90%
- 5Xiao Long88%
- Top 5 · bantamweightStriking Defense
- 1Suyoung You70%
- 2David Martinez70%
- 3Aiemann Zahabi68%
- 4Santiago Luna68%
- 5Miles Johns67%
- 33% of wins finished in round 1
Umar Nurmagomedov — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 489 landed total · career
- Head 68%
- Body 20%
- Leg 11%
- Distance 67%
- Clinch 6%
- Ground 27%
David Martinez — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 160 landed total · career
- Head 64%
- Body 17%
- Leg 19%
- Distance 89%
- Clinch 4%
- Ground 7%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Victor Henry7.33
- 2Sean O'Malley6.10
- 3Adrian Yanez5.92
- 4Payton Talbott5.87
- 5Davey Grant5.58
- 1Changho Lee65%
- 2Sean O'Malley61%
- 3Nathan Fletcher60%
- 4Bryce Mitchell59%
- 5Payton Talbott59%
- 1Raul Rosas Jr.1.34
- 2Montel Jackson1.37
- 3Bryce Mitchell1.51
- 4Jafel Filho1.52
- 5Rinya Nakamura1.52
- 1Suyoung You70%
- 2David Martinez70%
- 3Aiemann Zahabi68%
- 4Santiago Luna68%
- 5Miles Johns67%
- 1Raul Rosas Jr.6.76
- 2Merab Dvalishvili5.97
- 3Rafael Estevam5.02
- 4Dan Argueta4.91
- 5Cristian Quinonez4.12
- 1Rinya Nakamura88%
- 2Elijah Smith75%
- 3Santiago Luna71%
- 4Montel Jackson61%
- 5Benardo Sopaj60%
- 1David Martinez100%
- 2Rinya Nakamura100%
- 3Quang Le100%
- 4Marcus Mcghee90%
- 5Xiao Long88%
- 1Toshiomi Kazama1.89
- 2Jafel Filho1.84
- 3Saimon Oliveira1.67
- 4Colby Thicknesse1.67
- 5Da'Mon Blackshear1.48
- 1Raul Rosas Jr.8.53
- 2Bryce Mitchell8.25
- 3Rinya Nakamura7.81
- 4Rafael Estevam7.79
- 5Dan Argueta6.37
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Umar Nurmagomedov has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1638 vs 1562, 4 quality wins to 2.
- Jan 24, 2026
- Oct 25, 2025
- Jan 18, 2025
- Aug 3, 2024
- Mar 2, 2024
- Feb 28, 2026
- Sep 13, 2025
- Mar 29, 2025