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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

8-1-0 UFC record 3-0-0
KO 1 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
+2 Streak +3
30 Age 27
5'8" 173 cm Height 5'5" 165 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 67" 170 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1683 Global Elo 1598
1649 Elo rating 1572
Umar Nurmagomedov — Notable
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
David Martinez — Notable
At a glance

Umar Nurmagomedov — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 489 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
68% Head
  • Head 68%
  • Body 20%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
67% Distance
  • Distance 67%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 27%

David Martinez — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 160 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 19%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 7%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.86
4.62
div avg 4.29
56%
46%
div avg 50%
1.86
2.83
div avg 3.30
61%
70%
div avg 58%
4.03
0.87
div avg 1.75
47%
29%
div avg 37%
79%
100%
div avg 70%
0.24
0.00
div avg 0.40
6
1
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Umar Nurmagomedov
38% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 2
can finish?
David Martinez
finished
no losses
David Martinez
33% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Umar Nurmagomedov
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Umar Nurmagomedov has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1638 vs 1562, 4 quality wins to 2.

Umar Nurmagomedov red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1638
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
4
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Cory Sandhagen
Elo 1691 at fight time
Expected wins
4.5
+3.5 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 9 fights
1500
1673
David Martinez blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1562
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Rob Font
Elo 1636 at fight time
Expected wins
1.4
+1.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1441
1610
Corner A recent form
Umar Nurmagomedov
Corner B recent form
David Martinez
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Umar Nurmagomedov & David Martinez on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.