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Paulo Thiago

Inactive · age 45 · Orthodox · 5'11" 180 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • UFC veteran since 2009
Elo rating
1470
Global Elo 1509 ±30
Rank
—
—
UFC record
5-8-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
-3
Δ90d +18 · Δ1y +18
Last fight
Sep 13, 2014
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 28m
Avg fight time
11:24
Bonuses
4
Fights per year
2.3
Since last fight
11y 9mo

Honest Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Feb 21, 2009 — W vs Josh Koscheck Δ+45Jul 11, 2009 — L vs Jon Fitch Δ-19Nov 21, 2009 — W vs Jacob Volkmann Δ+27Feb 6, 2010 — W vs Mike Swick Δ+43Jun 12, 2010 — L vs Martin Kampmann Δ-29Oct 23, 2010 — L vs Diego Sanchez Δ-13Aug 27, 2011 — W vs David Mitchell Δ+12Apr 14, 2012 — L vs Siyar Bahadurzada Δ-22Nov 10, 2012 — L vs Dong Hyun Kim Δ-13May 18, 2013 — W vs Michel Prazeres Δ+15Nov 9, 2013 — L vs Brandon Thatch Δ-19May 31, 2014 — L vs Gasan Umalatov Δ-19Sep 13, 2014 — L vs Sean Spencer Δ-16 1450147515001525155015751600 20102011201220132014 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":252.6,"elo":1524,"date":"2009-02-21","opp":"Josh Koscheck","result":"W","delta":45},{"i":1,"x":139.7,"y":293.1,"elo":1505,"date":"2009-07-11","opp":"Jon Fitch","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":2,"x":186.8,"y":236.1,"elo":1532,"date":"2009-11-21","opp":"Jacob Volkmann","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":3,"x":214.1,"y":144.4,"elo":1575,"date":"2010-02-06","opp":"Mike Swick","result":"W","delta":43},{"i":4,"x":258.8,"y":206.5,"elo":1545,"date":"2010-06-12","opp":"Martin Kampmann","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":5,"x":306,"y":234.2,"elo":1532,"date":"2010-10-23","opp":"Diego Sanchez","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":6,"x":415.2,"y":208,"elo":1545,"date":"2011-08-27","opp":"David Mitchell","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":7,"x":497.2,"y":254.5,"elo":1523,"date":"2012-04-14","opp":"Siyar Bahadurzada","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":8,"x":571.7,"y":282,"elo":1510,"date":"2012-11-10","opp":"Dong Hyun Kim","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":9,"x":638.7,"y":250.9,"elo":1525,"date":"2013-05-18","opp":"Michel Prazeres","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":10,"x":700.8,"y":291.4,"elo":1506,"date":"2013-11-09","opp":"Brandon Thatch","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":11,"x":772.8,"y":331.3,"elo":1487,"date":"2014-05-31","opp":"Gasan Umalatov","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":12,"x":810,"y":366.5,"elo":1470,"date":"2014-09-13","opp":"Sean Spencer","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 13, 2014 Sean Spencer L -16
May 31, 2014 Gasan Umalatov L -19
Nov 9, 2013 Brandon Thatch L -19
May 18, 2013 Michel Prazeres W +15
Nov 10, 2012 Dong Hyun Kim L -13

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
2 / 5
Finish rate
KO
1
20% of wins
SUB
1
20% of wins
DEC
3
60% of wins
KO: 1 (20%) 1 Sub: 1 (20%) 1 Dec: 3 (60%) 3
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 254 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
59% Distance
  • Distance 59%
  • Clinch 29%
  • Ground 12%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
25%
of losses by finish
2 of 8 · usually R1
2 KO/TKO 0 Sub 6 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1523
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
2
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Mike Swick
Elo 1660 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
6.2
−1.2 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 13 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1631
1497
Notable wins
Mike Swick 1660 Josh Koscheck 1631

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Paulo Thiago on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.