HonestElo
← welterweight

Paulo Thiago

Inactive · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1509 ±32
LCB 1468
Rank
—
—
UFC record
5-8-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
-3
Δ90d +18 · Δ1y +18
Last fight
Sep 13, 2014
L by Decision

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Feb 21, 2009 — W vs Josh Koscheck Δ+45Jul 11, 2009 — L vs Jon Fitch Δ-19Nov 21, 2009 — W vs Jacob Volkmann Δ+27Feb 6, 2010 — W vs Mike Swick Δ+43Jun 12, 2010 — L vs Martin Kampmann Δ-29Oct 23, 2010 — L vs Diego Sanchez Δ-13Aug 27, 2011 — W vs David Mitchell Δ+12Apr 14, 2012 — L vs Siyar Bahadurzada Δ-22Nov 10, 2012 — L vs Dong Hyun Kim Δ-13May 18, 2013 — W vs Michel Prazeres Δ+15Nov 9, 2013 — L vs Brandon Thatch Δ-19May 31, 2014 — L vs Gasan Umalatov Δ-19Sep 13, 2014 — L vs Sean Spencer Δ-16 14521498154415901636 20102011201220132014 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":128.4,"elo":1545,"date":"2009-02-21","opp":"Josh Koscheck","result":"W","delta":45},{"i":1,"x":82.8,"y":150.3,"elo":1526,"date":"2009-07-11","opp":"Jon Fitch","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":2,"x":138.6,"y":119.6,"elo":1553,"date":"2009-11-21","opp":"Jacob Volkmann","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":3,"x":170.9,"y":70.1,"elo":1596,"date":"2010-02-06","opp":"Mike Swick","result":"W","delta":43},{"i":4,"x":223.8,"y":103.6,"elo":1567,"date":"2010-06-12","opp":"Martin Kampmann","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":5,"x":279.6,"y":118.5,"elo":1554,"date":"2010-10-23","opp":"Diego Sanchez","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":6,"x":408.9,"y":104.4,"elo":1566,"date":"2011-08-27","opp":"David Mitchell","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":7,"x":505.8,"y":129.5,"elo":1544,"date":"2012-04-14","opp":"Siyar Bahadurzada","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":8,"x":594,"y":144.3,"elo":1531,"date":"2012-11-10","opp":"Dong Hyun Kim","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":9,"x":673.3,"y":127.5,"elo":1546,"date":"2013-05-18","opp":"Michel Prazeres","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":10,"x":746.7,"y":149.4,"elo":1527,"date":"2013-11-09","opp":"Brandon Thatch","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":11,"x":831.9,"y":170.9,"elo":1508,"date":"2014-05-31","opp":"Gasan Umalatov","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":189.9,"elo":1492,"date":"2014-09-13","opp":"Sean Spencer","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 13, 2014 Sean Spencer L -16
May 31, 2014 Gasan Umalatov L -19
Nov 9, 2013 Brandon Thatch L -19
May 18, 2013 Michel Prazeres W +15
Nov 10, 2012 Dong Hyun Kim L -13

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.59 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
39% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.84 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
64% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.31 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
32% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
64% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.13 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
2 / 5
Finish rate
KO
1
20% of wins
SUB
1
20% of wins
DEC
3
60% of wins
KO: 1 (20%) 1 Sub: 1 (20%) 1 Dec: 3 (60%) 3
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1523
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.2
actual -1 vs expected