HonestElo
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Julio Arce

Active #43 featherweight · Southpaw · 170 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1541 ±36
LCB 1494
Rank
#43
top 44% of division
UFC record
6-4-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
+1
Δ90d -1 · Δ1y -1
Last fight
Mar 30, 2024
W by KO

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Jan 20, 2018 — W vs Dan Ige Δ+29Jun 1, 2018 — W vs Daniel Teymur Δ+28Nov 3, 2018 — L vs Sheymon Moraes Δ-33May 18, 2019 — W vs Julian Erosa Δ+25Nov 2, 2019 — L vs Hakeem Dawodu Δ-28Jul 24, 2021 — W vs Andre Ewell Δ+19Nov 13, 2021 — L vs Song Yadong Δ-14Apr 9, 2022 — W vs Daniel Santos Δ+15Nov 12, 2022 — L vs Montel Jackson Δ-15Mar 30, 2024 — W vs Herbert Burns Δ+17 14801509153815671597 201920202021202220232024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":147.1,"elo":1529,"date":"2018-01-20","opp":"Dan Ige","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":73.7,"y":96.7,"elo":1557,"date":"2018-06-01","opp":"Daniel Teymur","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":132.1,"y":157.5,"elo":1523,"date":"2018-11-03","opp":"Sheymon Moraes","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":3,"x":206,"y":112.2,"elo":1548,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Julian Erosa","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":4,"x":269.3,"y":163.3,"elo":1520,"date":"2019-11-02","opp":"Hakeem Dawodu","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":5,"x":506.7,"y":128.5,"elo":1539,"date":"2021-07-24","opp":"Andre Ewell","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":548.9,"y":153.5,"elo":1525,"date":"2021-11-13","opp":"Song Yadong","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":7,"x":604.3,"y":126.5,"elo":1540,"date":"2022-04-09","opp":"Daniel Santos","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":8,"x":686.1,"y":153.6,"elo":1525,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Montel Jackson","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":123.1,"elo":1542,"date":"2024-03-30","opp":"Herbert Burns","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 30, 2024 Herbert Burns W +17
Nov 12, 2022 Montel Jackson L -15
Apr 9, 2022 Daniel Santos W +15
Nov 13, 2021 Song Yadong L -14
Jul 24, 2021 Andre Ewell W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.73 avg 3.76
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
35% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.78 avg 2.97
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
68% avg 57%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.44 avg 1.39
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
29% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
96% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.33 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
4 / 6
Finish rate
KO
3
50% of wins
SUB
1
17% of wins
DEC
2
33% of wins
KO: 3 (50%) 3 Sub: 1 (17%) 1 Dec: 2 (33%) 2
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
R2
2 50%
R3
2 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1544
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.2
actual +1 vs expected