HonestElo
← womens strawweight

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Active #29 womens strawweight
Elo rating
1484 ±24
LCB 1453
Rank
#29
top 55% of division
UFC record
6-9-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 · Dec 4
Streak
-5
Δ90d +5 · Δ1y +5
Last fight
Jun 29, 2024
L by Decision

Elo history

15 fights · tap & drag
Jul 12, 2015 — W vs Angela Magana Δ+30Dec 17, 2016 — W vs Paige VanZant Δ+38Apr 15, 2017 — L vs Rose Namajunas Δ-36Dec 2, 2017 — L vs Tecia Pennington Δ-24Apr 14, 2018 — W vs Cortney Casey Δ+27Oct 6, 2018 — W vs Felice Herrig Δ+18Mar 30, 2019 — W vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz Δ+16Oct 12, 2019 — L vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk Δ-13May 9, 2020 — L vs Carla Esparza Δ-16Sep 12, 2020 — W vs Angela Hill Δ+14May 8, 2021 — L vs Marina Rodriguez Δ-16Jul 16, 2022 — L vs Amanda Lemos Δ-16Apr 8, 2023 — L vs Luana Pinheiro Δ-16Sep 23, 2023 — L vs Marina Rodriguez Δ-15Jun 29, 2024 — L vs Gillian Robertson Δ-12 14391481152415661609 2017201920212023 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":121.9,"elo":1530,"date":"2015-07-12","opp":"Angela Magana","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":1,"x":160.3,"y":74.9,"elo":1568,"date":"2016-12-17","opp":"Paige VanZant","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":2,"x":191.3,"y":119.5,"elo":1532,"date":"2017-04-15","opp":"Rose Namajunas","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":3,"x":251.4,"y":149.4,"elo":1508,"date":"2017-12-02","opp":"Tecia Pennington","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":4,"x":286,"y":115.7,"elo":1535,"date":"2018-04-14","opp":"Cortney Casey","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":5,"x":331.5,"y":93,"elo":1554,"date":"2018-10-06","opp":"Felice Herrig","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":377,"y":73.8,"elo":1569,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Karolina Kowalkiewicz","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":428,"y":90,"elo":1556,"date":"2019-10-12","opp":"Joanna Jedrzejczyk","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":8,"x":482.6,"y":110.3,"elo":1540,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Carla Esparza","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":9,"x":515.4,"y":93.1,"elo":1554,"date":"2020-09-12","opp":"Angela Hill","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":10,"x":577.3,"y":113.1,"elo":1538,"date":"2021-05-08","opp":"Marina Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":690.3,"y":132.5,"elo":1522,"date":"2022-07-16","opp":"Amanda Lemos","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":12,"x":759.5,"y":152.3,"elo":1506,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Luana Pinheiro","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":13,"x":803.2,"y":171.1,"elo":1491,"date":"2023-09-23","opp":"Marina Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":14,"x":876,"y":186.2,"elo":1479,"date":"2024-06-29","opp":"Gillian Robertson","result":"L","delta":-12}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 29, 2024 Gillian Robertson L -12
Sep 23, 2023 Marina Rodriguez L -15
Apr 8, 2023 Luana Pinheiro L -16
Jul 16, 2022 Amanda Lemos L -16
May 8, 2021 Marina Rodriguez L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.39 avg 3.84
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
46% avg 47%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.31 avg 3.29
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
48% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.24 avg 1.86
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
30% avg 46%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
70% avg 67%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.52 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 4
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
2 / 6
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
2
33% of wins
DEC
4
67% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 2 (33%) 2 Dec: 4 (67%) 4
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1563
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.1
actual -1 vs expected