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Michelle Waterson-Gomez "The Karate Hottie"

Active #30 womens strawweight · age 40 · Orthodox · 5'3" 160 cm · 115 lb 52 kg · reach 62" 158 cm
At a glance
  • 5-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2015
Elo rating
1456
Global Elo 1485 ±23
Rank
#30
top 62% of division
UFC record
6-9-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 · Dec 4
Streak
-5
Δ90d +7 · Δ1y +7
Last fight
Jun 29, 2024
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
3h 38m
Avg fight time
14:33
Bonuses
4
Fights per year
1.7
Since last fight
1y 12mo

Honest Elo history

15 fights · tap & drag
Jul 12, 2015 — W vs Angela Magana Δ+30Dec 17, 2016 — W vs Paige VanZant Δ+38Apr 15, 2017 — L vs Rose Namajunas Δ-36Dec 2, 2017 — L vs Tecia Pennington Δ-24Apr 14, 2018 — W vs Cortney Casey Δ+27Oct 6, 2018 — W vs Felice Herrig Δ+18Mar 30, 2019 — W vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz Δ+16Oct 12, 2019 — L vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk Δ-13May 9, 2020 — L vs Carla Esparza Δ-16Sep 12, 2020 — W vs Angela Hill Δ+14May 8, 2021 — L vs Marina Rodriguez Δ-16Jul 16, 2022 — L vs Amanda Lemos Δ-16Apr 8, 2023 — L vs Luana Pinheiro Δ-16Sep 23, 2023 — L vs Marina Rodriguez Δ-15Jun 29, 2024 — L vs Gillian Robertson Δ-12 1425145014751500152515501575 2017201920212023 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":234.2,"elo":1507,"date":"2015-07-12","opp":"Angela Magana","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":1,"x":205.2,"y":153.8,"elo":1545,"date":"2016-12-17","opp":"Paige VanZant","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":2,"x":231.4,"y":230.2,"elo":1509,"date":"2017-04-15","opp":"Rose Namajunas","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":3,"x":282.1,"y":281.4,"elo":1485,"date":"2017-12-02","opp":"Tecia Pennington","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":4,"x":311.4,"y":223.5,"elo":1512,"date":"2018-04-14","opp":"Cortney Casey","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":5,"x":349.9,"y":184.7,"elo":1531,"date":"2018-10-06","opp":"Felice Herrig","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":388.3,"y":151.9,"elo":1546,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Karolina Kowalkiewicz","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":431.4,"y":179.6,"elo":1533,"date":"2019-10-12","opp":"Joanna Jedrzejczyk","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":8,"x":477.6,"y":214.4,"elo":1517,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Carla Esparza","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":9,"x":505.3,"y":184.9,"elo":1531,"date":"2020-09-12","opp":"Angela Hill","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":10,"x":557.6,"y":219.1,"elo":1515,"date":"2021-05-08","opp":"Marina Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":653,"y":252.3,"elo":1499,"date":"2022-07-16","opp":"Amanda Lemos","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":12,"x":711.5,"y":286.3,"elo":1483,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Luana Pinheiro","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":13,"x":748.4,"y":318.5,"elo":1468,"date":"2023-09-23","opp":"Marina Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":14,"x":810,"y":344.3,"elo":1456,"date":"2024-06-29","opp":"Gillian Robertson","result":"L","delta":-12}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 29, 2024 Gillian Robertson L -12
Sep 23, 2023 Marina Rodriguez L -15
Apr 8, 2023 Luana Pinheiro L -16
Jul 16, 2022 Amanda Lemos L -16
May 8, 2021 Marina Rodriguez L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
2 / 6
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
2
33% of wins
DEC
4
67% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 2 (33%) 2 Dec: 4 (67%) 4
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 780 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
47% Head
  • Head 47%
  • Body 28%
  • Leg 25%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
70% Distance
  • Distance 70%
  • Clinch 19%
  • Ground 11%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
33%
of losses by finish
3 of 9 · usually R2
1 KO/TKO 2 Sub 6 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1563
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Felice Herrig
Elo 1584 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
7.1
−1.1 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 15 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1471
1578

Top womens strawweight

See full rankings →
Tatiana Suarez
#1 · Elo 1656
Gillian Robertson
#2 · Elo 1601
Mackenzie Dern C
#3 · Elo 1574
Virna Jandiroba
#4 · Elo 1569
Alexia Thainara
#5 · Elo 1561
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Michelle Waterson-Gomez on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.