HonestElo
← womens flyweight

Mariya Agapova

Active #30 womens flyweight · Southpaw · 168 cm · reach 173 cm
Elo rating
1460 ±37
LCB 1412
Rank
#30
top 81% of division
UFC record
2-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 · Dec 0
Streak
-3
Δ90d +9 · Δ1y +9
Last fight
Jul 13, 2024
L by Submission

Elo history

6 fights · tap & drag
Jun 13, 2020 — W vs Hannah Cifers Δ+29Aug 22, 2020 — L vs Shana Dobson Δ-42Oct 9, 2021 — W vs Sabina Mazo Δ+38Mar 5, 2022 — L vs Maryna Moroz Δ-31Sep 17, 2022 — L vs Gillian Robertson Δ-28Jul 13, 2024 — L vs Luana Santos Δ-13 14111451149015291569 2021202220232024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":77.9,"elo":1529,"date":"2020-06-13","opp":"Hannah Cifers","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":64,"y":134.6,"elo":1487,"date":"2020-08-22","opp":"Shana Dobson","result":"L","delta":-42},{"i":2,"x":300,"y":84,"elo":1524,"date":"2021-10-09","opp":"Sabina Mazo","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":3,"x":384,"y":126.4,"elo":1493,"date":"2022-03-05","opp":"Maryna Moroz","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":4,"x":496,"y":164,"elo":1465,"date":"2022-09-17","opp":"Gillian Robertson","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":5,"x":876,"y":182.1,"elo":1451,"date":"2024-07-13","opp":"Luana Santos","result":"L","delta":-13}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 13, 2024 Luana Santos L -13
Sep 17, 2022 Gillian Robertson L -28
Mar 5, 2022 Maryna Moroz L -31
Oct 9, 2021 Sabina Mazo W +38
Aug 22, 2020 Shana Dobson L -42

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.67 avg 3.78
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
56% avg 45%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.38 avg 3.59
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.55 avg 1.35
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
100% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
47% avg 65%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.82 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
2 / 2
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
2
100% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 2 (100%) 2 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1523
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.9
actual -1 vs expected