HonestElo
← womens strawweight

Mackenzie Dern C

Active #3 womens strawweight · Orthodox · 163 cm · reach 160 cm
Elo rating
1623 ±38
LCB 1573
Rank
#3
top 4% of division
UFC record
11-5-0
KO 0 · Sub 5 · Dec 6
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +21
Last fight
Oct 25, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

16 fights · tap & drag
Mar 3, 2018 — W vs Ashley Yoder Δ+24May 12, 2018 — W vs Amanda Cooper Δ+30Oct 12, 2019 — L vs Amanda Ribas Δ-30May 30, 2020 — W vs Hannah Cifers Δ+29Sep 19, 2020 — W vs Randa Markos Δ+27Dec 12, 2020 — W vs Virna Jandiroba Δ+15Apr 10, 2021 — W vs Nina Nunes Δ+15Oct 9, 2021 — L vs Marina Rodriguez Δ-18Apr 9, 2022 — W vs Tecia Pennington Δ+16Oct 1, 2022 — L vs Yan Xiaonan Δ-17May 20, 2023 — W vs Angela Hill Δ+12Nov 11, 2023 — L vs Jessica Andrade Δ-19Feb 17, 2024 — L vs Amanda Lemos Δ-15Aug 3, 2024 — W vs Loopy Godinez Δ+16Jan 11, 2025 — W vs Amanda Ribas Δ+18Oct 25, 2025 — W vs Virna Jandiroba Δ+21 14841528157316181663 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":188.1,"elo":1524,"date":"2018-03-03","opp":"Ashley Yoder","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":1,"x":45.4,"y":152.9,"elo":1554,"date":"2018-05-12","opp":"Amanda Cooper","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":203.4,"y":188.7,"elo":1524,"date":"2019-10-12","opp":"Amanda Ribas","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":3,"x":273.8,"y":154.1,"elo":1553,"date":"2020-05-30","opp":"Hannah Cifers","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":308,"y":122.6,"elo":1579,"date":"2020-09-19","opp":"Randa Markos","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":5,"x":333.6,"y":105.4,"elo":1594,"date":"2020-12-12","opp":"Virna Jandiroba","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":6,"x":369.9,"y":87.2,"elo":1609,"date":"2021-04-10","opp":"Nina Nunes","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":425.4,"y":108.3,"elo":1591,"date":"2021-10-09","opp":"Marina Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":8,"x":481,"y":90.1,"elo":1607,"date":"2022-04-09","opp":"Tecia Pennington","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":534.3,"y":109.7,"elo":1590,"date":"2022-10-01","opp":"Yan Xiaonan","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":10,"x":604.8,"y":95.9,"elo":1602,"date":"2023-05-20","opp":"Angela Hill","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":11,"x":658.2,"y":118.9,"elo":1582,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Jessica Andrade","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":12,"x":688.1,"y":136.6,"elo":1568,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Amanda Lemos","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":739.3,"y":117.6,"elo":1584,"date":"2024-08-03","opp":"Loopy Godinez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":14,"x":788.5,"y":96.3,"elo":1602,"date":"2025-01-11","opp":"Amanda Ribas","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":15,"x":876,"y":71.3,"elo":1623,"date":"2025-10-25","opp":"Virna Jandiroba","result":"W","delta":21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 25, 2025 Virna Jandiroba W +21
Jan 11, 2025 Amanda Ribas W +18
Aug 3, 2024 Loopy Godinez W +16
Feb 17, 2024 Amanda Lemos L -15
Nov 11, 2023 Jessica Andrade L -19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.34 avg 3.85
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
42% avg 48%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.80 avg 3.31
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
52% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.89 avg 1.88
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
18% avg 47%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
38% avg 68%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.02 avg 0.51
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 4
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
45%
5 / 11
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
5
45% of wins
DEC
6
55% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 5 (45%) 5 Dec: 6 (55%) 6
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
4 80%
R2
R3
1 20%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1590
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.7
actual +2 vs expected