HonestElo
← womens strawweight

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Active #37 womens strawweight · Orthodox · 160 cm · reach 163 cm
Elo rating
1493 ±39
LCB 1442
Rank
#37
top 71% of division
UFC record
9-10-0
KO 0 · Sub 1 · Dec 8
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -20
Last fight
Oct 11, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

19 fights · tap & drag
Dec 19, 2015 — W vs Randa Markos Δ+29May 8, 2016 — W vs Heather Clark Δ+29Jul 30, 2016 — W vs Rose Namajunas Δ+30Nov 12, 2016 — L vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk Δ-27Jun 3, 2017 — L vs Claudia Gadelha Δ-35Oct 21, 2017 — W vs Jodie Esquibel Δ+15Apr 7, 2018 — W vs Felice Herrig Δ+19Sep 8, 2018 — L vs Jessica Andrade Δ-17Mar 30, 2019 — L vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez Δ-15Jun 8, 2019 — L vs Alexa Grasso Δ-17Feb 22, 2020 — L vs Yan Xiaonan Δ-12Aug 7, 2021 — L vs Jessica Penne Δ-20Jun 4, 2022 — W vs Felice Herrig Δ+22Nov 12, 2022 — W vs Silvana Gomez Juarez Δ+15May 20, 2023 — W vs Vanessa Demopoulos Δ+18Oct 7, 2023 — W vs Diana Belbita Δ+13May 4, 2024 — L vs Iasmin Lucindo Δ-17Nov 9, 2024 — L vs Denise Gomes Δ-15Oct 11, 2025 — L vs Julia Polastri Δ-20 14371485153315801628 20172019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":133.7,"elo":1529,"date":"2015-12-19","opp":"Randa Markos","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":57.5,"y":101.6,"elo":1558,"date":"2016-05-08","opp":"Heather Clark","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":77.3,"y":68.5,"elo":1588,"date":"2016-07-30","opp":"Rose Namajunas","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":102.2,"y":98.9,"elo":1561,"date":"2016-11-12","opp":"Joanna Jedrzejczyk","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":4,"x":150.5,"y":138.3,"elo":1525,"date":"2017-06-03","opp":"Claudia Gadelha","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":5,"x":183.8,"y":121.8,"elo":1540,"date":"2017-10-21","opp":"Jodie Esquibel","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":6,"x":223.7,"y":100.9,"elo":1559,"date":"2018-04-07","opp":"Felice Herrig","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":7,"x":260.3,"y":119.8,"elo":1542,"date":"2018-09-08","opp":"Jessica Andrade","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":8,"x":308.6,"y":137,"elo":1526,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Michelle Waterson-Gomez","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":9,"x":325.2,"y":156.1,"elo":1509,"date":"2019-06-08","opp":"Alexa Grasso","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":10,"x":386.8,"y":169.7,"elo":1497,"date":"2020-02-22","opp":"Yan Xiaonan","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":11,"x":513.2,"y":191.5,"elo":1477,"date":"2021-08-07","opp":"Jessica Penne","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":12,"x":584.8,"y":167.2,"elo":1499,"date":"2022-06-04","opp":"Felice Herrig","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":13,"x":623.1,"y":151,"elo":1514,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Silvana Gomez Juarez","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":14,"x":668,"y":130.8,"elo":1532,"date":"2023-05-20","opp":"Vanessa Demopoulos","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":15,"x":701.3,"y":116.1,"elo":1545,"date":"2023-10-07","opp":"Diana Belbita","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":16,"x":751.2,"y":134.6,"elo":1528,"date":"2024-05-04","opp":"Iasmin Lucindo","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":17,"x":796.1,"y":151.7,"elo":1513,"date":"2024-11-09","opp":"Denise Gomes","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":18,"x":876,"y":174,"elo":1493,"date":"2025-10-11","opp":"Julia Polastri","result":"L","delta":-20}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 11, 2025 Julia Polastri L -20
Nov 9, 2024 Denise Gomes L -15
May 4, 2024 Iasmin Lucindo L -17
Oct 7, 2023 Diana Belbita W +13
May 20, 2023 Vanessa Demopoulos W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.36 avg 3.83
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
43% avg 47%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
5.58 avg 3.33
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
57% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.35 avg 1.84
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
23% avg 46%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
75% avg 67%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.17 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 4
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
11%
1 / 9
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
1
11% of wins
DEC
8
89% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 1 (11%) 1 Dec: 8 (89%) 8
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1517
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
9.3
actual 0 vs expected