Other bouts 11
- 1lightweight MainMateusz GamrotvsQuillan Salkilld
- 2lightweightDiego FerreiravsBilly Quarantillo
- 3featherweightDarren ElkinsvsYadier del Valle
- 4women's strawweightAmanda LemosvsAlexia Thainara
- 5welterweightBilly Ray GoffvsTy Miller
- 6heavyweightSteven AsplundvsGuilherme Pat
- 8Not linkedheavyweightLouie SutherlandvsJose Montanha
- 9Not linkedlightweightManoel SousavsRichie Miranda
- 10featherweightMiles JohnsvsGianni Vazquez
- 11women's flyweightJuliana MillervsRavena Oliveira
- 12Not linkedwomen's strawweightGigi CanutovsCarol Foro
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Diyar Nurgozhay 58.9% · Bruno Lopes 41.1%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Diyar Nurgozhay 48.9% · Bruno Lopes 51.1%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 8
Tale of the tape
| 2-2-0 | UFC record | 1-3-0 |
| KO 1 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 0 |
| +2 | Streak | -3 |
| 29 | Age | 33 |
| 6'2" 188 cm | Height | 6'2" 188 cm |
| 74" 188 cm | Reach | 74" 188 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1500 | Global Elo | 1440 |
| 1444 | Elo rating | 1394 |
Diyar Nurgozhay — Notable ▼
- Top 5 · light heavyweightStriking Accuracy
- 1Diyar Nurgozhay63%
- 2Paulo Costa59%
- 3Rodolfo Bellato59%
- 4Zhang Mingyang59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
- Top 5 · light heavyweightTakedown Accuracy
- 50% of wins by KO/TKO
- 50% of wins finished in round 1
Bruno Lopes — Notable ▼
- 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
- Top 5 · light heavyweightTakedown Defense
- 1Iwo Baraniewski100%
- 2Zhang Mingyang100%
- 3Julius Walker100%
- 4Bruno Lopes100%
- 5Rodolfo Bellato92%
- Top 5 · light heavyweightTakedowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev12.68
- 2Jimmy Crute4.64
- 3Julius Walker4.07
- 4Ion Cutelaba4.02
- 5Bruno Lopes2.91
Diyar Nurgozhay — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 166 landed total · career
- Head 34%
- Body 37%
- Leg 30%
- Distance 83%
- Clinch 5%
- Ground 12%
Bruno Lopes — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 78 landed total · career
- Head 50%
- Body 27%
- Leg 23%
- Distance 60%
- Clinch 36%
- Ground 4%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Iwo Baraniewski11.29
- 2Zhang Mingyang6.64
- 3Carlos Ulberg6.61
- 4Navajo Stirling6.41
- 5Paulo Costa6.15
- 1Diyar Nurgozhay63%
- 2Paulo Costa59%
- 3Rodolfo Bellato59%
- 4Zhang Mingyang59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
- 1Oumar Sy1.87
- 2Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev2.25
- 3Navajo Stirling2.46
- 4Magomed Ankalaev2.49
- 5Austen Lane2.56
- 1Oumar Sy67%
- 2Caio Machado62%
- 3Navajo Stirling59%
- 4Robert Whittaker59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev12.68
- 2Jimmy Crute4.64
- 3Julius Walker4.07
- 4Ion Cutelaba4.02
- 5Bruno Lopes2.91
- 1Iwo Baraniewski100%
- 2Zhang Mingyang100%
- 3Julius Walker100%
- 4Bruno Lopes100%
- 5Rodolfo Bellato92%
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev8.45
- 2Jimmy Crute2.13
- 3Nikita Krylov1.14
- 4Billy Elekana0.85
- 5Tuco Tokkos0.70
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev10.07
- 2Julius Walker8.17
- 3Austen Lane6.24
- 4Jimmy Crute6.02
- 5Nikita Krylov5.30
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Bruno Lopes has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1531 vs 1480, 0 quality wins to 0.
- Aug 8, 2026
- Mar 7, 2026
- Aug 23, 2025
- Mar 15, 2025
- Aug 8, 2026
- Mar 28, 2026
- May 31, 2025
- Jan 11, 2025