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Rafael Tobias "Bipolar"

Active Provisional · age 23 · Orthodox · 6'2" 188 cm · 205 lb 93 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Elo rating
1487
Global Elo 1513 ±20
Rank
—
—
UFC record
0-1-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-1
Δ90d +47 · Δ1y +13
Last fight
Mar 7, 2026
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
15m
Avg fight time
15:00
Since last fight
4mo

Honest Elo history

1 fights · tap & drag
Mar 7, 2026 — L vs Diyar Nurgozhay Δ-34 146014701480149015001510 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":237.2,"elo":1487,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Diyar Nurgozhay","result":"L","delta":-34}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 7, 2026 Diyar Nurgozhay L -34

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 0
Finish rate
KO
0
—
SUB
0
—
DEC
0
—
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 39 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
74% Head
  • Head 74%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
67% Distance
  • Distance 67%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 23%

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1432
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 0 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
—
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
0.6
−0.6 wins below what this schedule implies

Top light heavyweight

See full rankings →
Carlos Ulberg C
#1 · Elo 1670
Magomed Ankalaev
#2 · Elo 1654
Azamat Murzakanov
#3 · Elo 1611
Navajo Stirling
#4 · Elo 1604
Paulo Costa
#5 · Elo 1592
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Rafael Tobias on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.