HonestElo
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Takeya Mizugaki

Inactive · Orthodox · 170 cm · reach 175 cm
Elo rating
1532 ±36
LCB 1486
Rank
—
—
UFC record
8-6-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 7
Streak
-2
Δ90d +1 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Dec 17, 2016
L by KO

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
Mar 3, 2011 — W vs Reuben Duran Δ+29Jul 2, 2011 — L vs Brian Bowles Δ-28Sep 24, 2011 — W vs Cole Escovedo Δ+30Feb 25, 2012 — L vs Chris Cariaso Δ-29Nov 10, 2012 — W vs Jeff Hougland Δ+29Mar 2, 2013 — W vs Bryan Caraway Δ+18Aug 28, 2013 — W vs Erik Perez Δ+18Dec 6, 2013 — W vs Nam Phan Δ+12May 24, 2014 — W vs Francisco Rivera Δ+15Sep 27, 2014 — L vs Dominick Cruz Δ-19Apr 18, 2015 — L vs Aljamain Sterling Δ-19Sep 26, 2015 — W vs George Roop Δ+12Aug 20, 2016 — L vs Cody Garbrandt Δ-15Dec 17, 2016 — L vs Eddie Wineland Δ-21 14601503154715901633 20122013201420152016 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":151.8,"elo":1529,"date":"2011-03-03","opp":"Reuben Duran","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":72.7,"y":186.8,"elo":1500,"date":"2011-07-02","opp":"Brian Bowles","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":106.5,"y":149.5,"elo":1531,"date":"2011-09-24","opp":"Cole Escovedo","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":168.6,"y":185.3,"elo":1502,"date":"2012-02-25","opp":"Chris Cariaso","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":4,"x":272.8,"y":150,"elo":1530,"date":"2012-11-10","opp":"Jeff Hougland","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":5,"x":317.9,"y":128.5,"elo":1548,"date":"2013-03-02","opp":"Bryan Caraway","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":390,"y":106.4,"elo":1566,"date":"2013-08-28","opp":"Erik Perez","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":430.3,"y":91.9,"elo":1578,"date":"2013-12-06","opp":"Nam Phan","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":8,"x":498.3,"y":73.2,"elo":1593,"date":"2014-05-24","opp":"Francisco Rivera","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":549.1,"y":97,"elo":1573,"date":"2014-09-27","opp":"Dominick Cruz","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":10,"x":630.8,"y":120.2,"elo":1555,"date":"2015-04-18","opp":"Aljamain Sterling","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":11,"x":695.6,"y":105.1,"elo":1567,"date":"2015-09-26","opp":"George Roop","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":12,"x":828.1,"y":123.8,"elo":1552,"date":"2016-08-20","opp":"Cody Garbrandt","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":149.4,"elo":1531,"date":"2016-12-17","opp":"Eddie Wineland","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 17, 2016 Eddie Wineland L -21
Aug 20, 2016 Cody Garbrandt L -15
Sep 26, 2015 George Roop W +12
Apr 18, 2015 Aljamain Sterling L -19
Sep 27, 2014 Dominick Cruz L -19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.50 avg 3.92
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
40% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.95 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
58% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.37 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
70% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.09 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
13%
1 / 8
Finish rate
KO
1
13% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
7
88% of wins
KO: 1 (13%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 7 (88%) 7
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1550
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.2
actual +1 vs expected