HonestElo
← bantamweight

Bryan Caraway

Inactive · Orthodox · 173 cm · reach 173 cm
Elo rating
1568 ±37
LCB 1520
Rank
—
—
UFC record
6-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 4 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d -11 · Δ1y -11
Last fight
Nov 30, 2018
L by KO

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Dec 3, 2011 — W vs Dustin Neace Δ+33Jul 21, 2012 — W vs Mitch Gagnon Δ+30Mar 2, 2013 — L vs Takeya Mizugaki Δ-31Apr 27, 2013 — W vs Johnny Bedford Δ+36Jun 7, 2014 — W vs Erik Perez Δ+34Oct 4, 2014 — L vs Raphael Assuncao Δ-15Jul 25, 2015 — W vs Eddie Wineland Δ+12May 29, 2016 — W vs Aljamain Sterling Δ+17Mar 3, 2018 — L vs Cody Stamann Δ-19Nov 30, 2018 — L vs Pedro Munhoz Δ-19 14921533157416151656 201320152017 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":182.5,"elo":1533,"date":"2011-12-03","opp":"Dustin Neace","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":101.1,"y":143.9,"elo":1563,"date":"2012-07-21","opp":"Mitch Gagnon","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":175.8,"y":184.5,"elo":1532,"date":"2013-03-02","opp":"Takeya Mizugaki","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":3,"x":194.5,"y":137.6,"elo":1568,"date":"2013-04-27","opp":"Johnny Bedford","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":4,"x":329.9,"y":93.6,"elo":1602,"date":"2014-06-07","opp":"Erik Perez","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":369.6,"y":113,"elo":1587,"date":"2014-10-04","opp":"Raphael Assuncao","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":6,"x":467.7,"y":97.7,"elo":1599,"date":"2015-07-25","opp":"Eddie Wineland","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":7,"x":570.8,"y":75.5,"elo":1616,"date":"2016-05-29","opp":"Aljamain Sterling","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":785.3,"y":99.6,"elo":1598,"date":"2018-03-03","opp":"Cody Stamann","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":123.8,"elo":1579,"date":"2018-11-30","opp":"Pedro Munhoz","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 30, 2018 Pedro Munhoz L -19
Mar 3, 2018 Cody Stamann L -19
May 29, 2016 Aljamain Sterling W +17
Jul 25, 2015 Eddie Wineland W +12
Oct 4, 2014 Raphael Assuncao L -15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.38 avg 3.92
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
35% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.55 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.19 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
21% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
76% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.69 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
4 / 6
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
4
67% of wins
DEC
2
33% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 4 (67%) 4 Dec: 2 (33%) 2
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
R2
2 50%
R3
2 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1578
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.2
actual +1 vs expected