HonestElo
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Keita Nakamura

Inactive · Southpaw · 180 cm · reach 185 cm
Elo rating
1486 ±42
LCB 1432
Rank
—
—
UFC record
4-7-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 · Dec 2
Streak
-1
Δ90d +25 · Δ1y +25
Last fight
Apr 20, 2019
L by Decision

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Dec 13, 2006 — L vs Brock Larson Δ-31Apr 5, 2007 — L vs Drew Fickett Δ-24Feb 2, 2008 — L vs Rob Emerson Δ-24Sep 26, 2015 — W vs Li Jingliang Δ+43Feb 27, 2016 — L vs Tom Breese Δ-20Jul 13, 2016 — W vs Kyle Noke Δ+23Oct 1, 2016 — L vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Δ-14Sep 22, 2017 — W vs Alex Morono Δ+21Apr 21, 2018 — L vs Anthony Rocco Martin Δ-14Dec 1, 2018 — W vs Salim Touahri Δ+17Apr 20, 2019 — L vs Sultan Aliev Δ-16 13811415144814821516 2009201220152018 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":98,"elo":1469,"date":"2006-12-13","opp":"Brock Larson","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":1,"x":45.3,"y":135.2,"elo":1445,"date":"2007-04-05","opp":"Drew Fickett","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":2,"x":102.6,"y":173.3,"elo":1421,"date":"2008-02-02","opp":"Rob Emerson","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":3,"x":630.1,"y":105.8,"elo":1464,"date":"2015-09-26","opp":"Li Jingliang","result":"W","delta":43},{"i":4,"x":659.2,"y":137.4,"elo":1444,"date":"2016-02-27","opp":"Tom Breese","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":5,"x":685.1,"y":101.2,"elo":1467,"date":"2016-07-13","opp":"Kyle Noke","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":6,"x":700.2,"y":123.2,"elo":1453,"date":"2016-10-01","opp":"Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":7,"x":767.4,"y":90.7,"elo":1473,"date":"2017-09-22","opp":"Alex Morono","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":8,"x":807.3,"y":113.2,"elo":1459,"date":"2018-04-21","opp":"Anthony Rocco Martin","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":9,"x":849.6,"y":86.7,"elo":1476,"date":"2018-12-01","opp":"Salim Touahri","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":111.4,"elo":1460,"date":"2019-04-20","opp":"Sultan Aliev","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 20, 2019 Sultan Aliev L -16
Dec 1, 2018 Salim Touahri W +17
Apr 21, 2018 Anthony Rocco Martin L -14
Sep 22, 2017 Alex Morono W +21
Oct 1, 2016 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos L -14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.11 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
36% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.27 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
58% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.69 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
51% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
64% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.38 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
2
50% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 2 (50%) 2 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
1 50%
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1508
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.7
actual -1 vs expected