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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

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By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

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Other fights on this card · 1

Notable

Grant

6 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Tale of the tape

9-7-0 UFC record 3-0-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 1
+1 Streak +3
40 Age 23
5'8" 173 cm Height 5'9" 175 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 71" 180 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1540 Global Elo 1589
1495 Elo rating 1563
Davey Grant — Notable
At a glance
Elijah Smith — Notable
At a glance

Davey Grant — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1063 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
40% Head
  • Head 40%
  • Body 33%
  • Leg 27%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 5%

Elijah Smith — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 93 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
84% Head
  • Head 84%
  • Body 5%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
47% Ground
  • Distance 46%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 47%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

5.58
3.69
div avg 4.32
45%
55%
div avg 50%
4.04
1.70
div avg 3.34
55%
52%
div avg 58%
0.95
1.78
div avg 1.78
39%
75%
div avg 37%
65%
46%
div avg 70%
0.16
1.19
div avg 0.40
2
5
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Davey Grant
44% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 1
can finish?
Elijah Smith
finished
no losses
Elijah Smith
67% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Davey Grant
finished 57%
4 of 7 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Davey Grant has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1528 vs 1503, 1 quality wins to 0.

Davey Grant red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1528
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win
Raphael Assuncao
Elo 1607 at fight time
Expected wins
7.2
+1.8 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 16 fights
1500
1500
Elijah Smith blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1503
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Suyoung You
Elo 1584 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1462
1584
Corner A recent form
Davey Grant
Corner B recent form
Elijah Smith
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Davey Grant & Elijah Smith on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.