Other bouts 1
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
Share your result
Pick how you'd like to share. Copy image works in most chat / social apps — copy here, then paste into the post directly. Download saves a PNG you can attach manually.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 1
Notable
6 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Tale of the tape
| 9-7-0 | UFC record | 3-0-0 |
| KO 3 · Sub 1 | Finishes | KO 1 · Sub 1 |
| +1 | Streak | +3 |
| 40 | Age | 23 |
| 5'8" 173 cm | Height | 5'9" 175 cm |
| 69" 175 cm | Reach | 71" 180 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1540 | Global Elo | 1589 |
| 1495 | Elo rating | 1563 |
Davey Grant — Notable ▼
- Fight of the Night in last fight
- Top 5 · bantamweightStrikes Landed per Minute
- 1Victor Henry7.17
- 2Sean O'Malley5.97
- 3Adrian Yanez5.92
- 4Payton Talbott5.87
- 5Davey Grant5.58
- UFC veteran since 2013
Elijah Smith — Notable ▼
- 3-fight UFC win streak — still undefeated
- Top 5 · bantamweightTakedown Accuracy
- 1Rinya Nakamura88%
- 2Elijah Smith75%
- 3Santiago Luna71%
- 4Montel Jackson61%
- 5Benardo Sopaj60%
- 67% of wins by KO or submission
- 33% of wins finished in round 1
Davey Grant — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1063 landed total · career
- Head 40%
- Body 33%
- Leg 27%
- Distance 89%
- Clinch 6%
- Ground 5%
Elijah Smith — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 93 landed total · career
- Head 84%
- Body 5%
- Leg 11%
- Distance 46%
- Clinch 6%
- Ground 47%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Victor Henry7.17
- 2Sean O'Malley5.97
- 3Adrian Yanez5.92
- 4Payton Talbott5.87
- 5Davey Grant5.58
- 1Changho Lee65%
- 2Sean O'Malley60%
- 3Nathan Fletcher60%
- 4Bryce Mitchell59%
- 5Payton Talbott59%
- 1Raul Rosas Jr.1.34
- 2Montel Jackson1.37
- 3Bryce Mitchell1.51
- 4Jafel Filho1.52
- 5Rinya Nakamura1.52
- 1Suyoung You70%
- 2David Martinez70%
- 3Aiemann Zahabi68%
- 4Santiago Luna68%
- 5Felipe Lima65%
- 1Raul Rosas Jr.6.76
- 2Merab Dvalishvili5.97
- 3Rafael Estevam5.02
- 4Dan Argueta4.36
- 5Cristian Quinonez4.12
- 1Rinya Nakamura88%
- 2Elijah Smith75%
- 3Santiago Luna71%
- 4Montel Jackson61%
- 5Benardo Sopaj60%
- 1David Martinez100%
- 2Rinya Nakamura100%
- 3Quang Le100%
- 4Marcus Mcghee90%
- 5Xiao Long88%
- 1Toshiomi Kazama1.89
- 2Jafel Filho1.84
- 3Saimon Oliveira1.67
- 4Colby Thicknesse1.67
- 5Da'Mon Blackshear1.48
- 1Raul Rosas Jr.8.53
- 2Bryce Mitchell8.25
- 3Rinya Nakamura7.81
- 4Rafael Estevam7.79
- 5Dan Argueta6.10
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Davey Grant has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1528 vs 1503, 1 quality wins to 0.
- Apr 25, 2026
- Oct 18, 2025
- Jul 26, 2025
- Dec 14, 2024
- Jul 22, 2023
- Mar 14, 2026
- Aug 9, 2025
- Feb 15, 2025