Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 12
- 1welterweight MainGabriel BonfimvsSean Brady
- 2women's strawweightTatiana SuarezvsVirna Jandiroba
- 3middleweightMantas KondrataviciusvsWes Schultz
- 4Not linkedlight heavyweightBilly ElekanavsLucas Fernando
- 6women's flyweightKarine SilvavsGabriella Fernandes
- 7Not linkedwomen's bantamweightPriscila CachoeiravsNina Milosevic
- 8featherweightKeiichiro NakamuravsOllie Schmid
- 9welterweightSeokhyeon KovsWellington Turman
- 10welterweightJonny ParsonsvsJose Souza
- 11bantamweightDavey GrantvsElijah Smith
- 12featherweightJose DelanovsMurtazali Magomedov
- 13Not linkedheavyweightGabriel LorencovsAlvin Hines
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
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Other fights on this card · 9
Notable
Cross-division matchup: the model gives Brennan +43 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.
Has never been finished — all 2 losses went to the scorecards.
Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.
Both enter off a loss (Jul 2026 / Apr 2026).
Fewer than 4 UFC fights — the rating is provisional and the uncertainty band is wide.
Tale of the tape
| 1-2-0 | UFC record | 0-1-0 |
| KO 0 · Sub 1 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 0 |
| -1 | Streak | -1 |
| 25 | Age | 26 |
| 5'6" 168 cm | Height | 5'10" 178 cm |
| 70" 178 cm | Reach | 72" 183 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 1489 | Global Elo | 1515 |
| 1442 | Elo rating | 1489 |
Austin Bashi — Notable ▼
- Has never been finished — durability signal
- 100% of wins by submission
- 100% of wins finished in round 1
Lucas Brennan — Notable ▼
- Has never been finished — durability signal
Austin Bashi — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 57 landed total · career
- Head 65%
- Body 28%
- Leg 7%
- Distance 79%
- Clinch 16%
- Ground 5%
Lucas Brennan — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 9 landed total · career
- Head 44%
- Body 22%
- Leg 33%
- Distance 100%
- Clinch 0%
- Ground 0%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Tommy Mcmillen12.80
- 2Hyder Amil7.28
- 3Marwan Rahiki6.87
- 4Luke Riley6.67
- 5Michael Aswell Jr.6.22
- 1Erik Silva67%
- 2Isaac Dulgarian64%
- 3Gabriel Santos61%
- 4Bogdan Grad59%
- 5Luke Riley59%
- 1Yadier Del Valle0.90
- 2Pat Sabatini1.16
- 3Jordan Leavitt1.63
- 4Isaac Dulgarian1.65
- 5Erik Silva1.66
- 1Felipe Lima68%
- 2Miles Johns67%
- 3Mairon Santos66%
- 4Yadier Del Valle66%
- 5Youssef Zalal65%
- 1Bogdan Grad5.33
- 2Movsar Evloev4.78
- 3Gabriel Miranda4.75
- 4Isaac Dulgarian4.57
- 5Pat Sabatini4.27
- 1Tommy Mcmillen100%
- 2Yadier Del Valle100%
- 3Gaston Bolanos75%
- 4Erik Silva75%
- 5Jean Silva67%
- 1Fernando Padilla100%
- 2Jose Aldo92%
- 3Kevin Vallejos90%
- 4Felipe Lima90%
- 5Sean Woodson88%
- 1Westin Wilson7.87
- 2Yadier Del Valle2.71
- 3Gabriel Miranda1.90
- 4Isaac Dulgarian1.83
- 5Daniel Pineda1.54
- 1Pat Sabatini10.65
- 2Isaac Dulgarian10.58
- 3Bogdan Grad6.76
- 4Jordan Leavitt5.97
- 5Darren Elkins5.51
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Austin Bashi has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1549 vs 1488, 0 quality wins to 0.
- Jul 18, 2026
- Aug 2, 2025
- Jan 11, 2025
- Apr 25, 2026