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Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes — Honest Elo matchup

women's flyweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night 293
Nov 7, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Karine Silva
#16 5-3-0
Elo 1526
VS
Corner B
Gabriella Fernandes
#22 3-3-0
Elo 1468

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Corner A Karine Silva 50.0%
Corner B Gabriella Fernandes 50.0%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

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Other fights on this card · 9
Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady Main event · welterweight Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba women's strawweight Mantas Kondratavicius vs Wes Schultz middleweight Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan featherweight Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid featherweight Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman welterweight Jonny Parsons vs Jose Souza welterweight Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith bantamweight Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov featherweight

Notable

Silva

Has never been finished — all 3 losses went to the scorecards.

Form

Both enter off a loss (Apr 2026 / Mar 2026).

Tale of the tape

5-3-0 UFC record 3-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 3 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 1
-2 Streak -1
32 Age 33
5'5" 165 cm Height 5'6" 168 cm
67" 170 cm Reach 66" 168 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1567 Global Elo 1520
1526 Elo rating 1468
Karine Silva — Notable ▼
At a glance
Gabriella Fernandes — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights

Karine Silva — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 197 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
42% Head
  • Head 42%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 35%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 15%
  • Ground 9%

Gabriella Fernandes — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 253 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
65% Head
  • Head 65%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 0%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.27
3.51
div avg 4.16
40%
47%
div avg 45%
2.64
5.31
div avg 3.71
54%
53%
div avg 56%
2.08
0.42
div avg 1.37
55%
18%
div avg 38%
29%
69%
div avg 65%
1.38
0.21
div avg 0.39
3
1
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Karine Silva
60% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 3
can finish?
Gabriella Fernandes
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses
Gabriella Fernandes
33% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 1
can finish?
Karine Silva
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Karine Silva has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1566 vs 1501, 0 quality wins to 0.

Karine Silva red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1566
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Maryna Moroz
Elo 1541 at fight time
Expected wins
4.3
+0.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 8 fights
1507
1595
Gabriella Fernandes blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1501
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Wang Cong
Elo 1528 at fight time
Expected wins
2.9
+0.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1498
1570

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

Corner A recent form
Karine Silva
Corner B recent form
Gabriella Fernandes
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Karine Silva & Gabriella Fernandes on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.