HonestElo
← light heavyweight

Alex Pereira

Active #1 light heavyweight
Elo rating
1730 ±36
LCB 1684
Rank
#1
top 1% of division
UFC record
10-2-0
KO 8 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +24
Last fight
Oct 4, 2025
W by KO

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Nov 6, 2021 — W vs Andreas Michailidis Δ+33Mar 12, 2022 — W vs Bruno Silva Δ+33Jul 2, 2022 — W vs Sean Strickland Δ+43Nov 12, 2022 — W vs Israel Adesanya Δ+59Apr 8, 2023 — L vs Israel Adesanya Δ-34Jul 29, 2023 — W vs Jan Blachowicz Δ+17Nov 11, 2023 — W vs Jiri Prochazka Δ+22Apr 13, 2024 — W vs Jamahal Hill Δ+21Jun 29, 2024 — W vs Jiri Prochazka Δ+19Oct 5, 2024 — W vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Δ+15Mar 8, 2025 — L vs Magomed Ankalaev Δ-22Oct 4, 2025 — W vs Magomed Ankalaev Δ+24 14931562163117011770 2022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":205.4,"elo":1533,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Andreas Michailidis","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":99.2,"y":180.6,"elo":1565,"date":"2022-03-12","opp":"Bruno Silva","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":166,"y":147.5,"elo":1609,"date":"2022-07-02","opp":"Sean Strickland","result":"W","delta":43},{"i":3,"x":245.4,"y":102.4,"elo":1668,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Israel Adesanya","result":"W","delta":59},{"i":4,"x":333.1,"y":128.2,"elo":1634,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Israel Adesanya","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":5,"x":399.9,"y":115.2,"elo":1651,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"Jan Blachowicz","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":462.5,"y":98.2,"elo":1673,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Jiri Prochazka","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":7,"x":554.4,"y":82.1,"elo":1694,"date":"2024-04-13","opp":"Jamahal Hill","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":8,"x":600.4,"y":67.6,"elo":1713,"date":"2024-06-29","opp":"Jiri Prochazka","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":9,"x":658.8,"y":55.9,"elo":1728,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Khalil Rountree Jr.","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":10,"x":750.7,"y":72.6,"elo":1707,"date":"2025-03-08","opp":"Magomed Ankalaev","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":54.6,"elo":1730,"date":"2025-10-04","opp":"Magomed Ankalaev","result":"W","delta":24}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 4, 2025 Magomed Ankalaev W +24
Mar 8, 2025 Magomed Ankalaev L -22
Oct 5, 2024 Khalil Rountree Jr. W +15
Jun 29, 2024 Jiri Prochazka W +19
Apr 13, 2024 Jamahal Hill W +21

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.42 avg 3.63
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
62% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.99 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 49%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.10 avg 0.74
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
79% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.19 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
0 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
80%
8 / 10
Finish rate
KO
8
80% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
20% of wins
KO: 8 (80%) 8 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (20%) 2
Finishes by round
8 total
R1
3 38%
R2
3 38%
R3
R4
1 13%
R5
1 13%

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1656
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.8
actual +4 vs expected