HonestElo
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Sergei Pavlovich

Active #6 heavyweight · Southpaw · 191 cm · reach 213 cm
Elo rating
1651 ±32
LCB 1609
Rank
#6
top 10% of division
UFC record
8-3-0
KO 6 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
+2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +15
Last fight
Aug 23, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Nov 24, 2018 — L vs Alistair Overeem Δ-26Apr 20, 2019 — W vs Marcelo Golm Δ+33Oct 26, 2019 — W vs Maurice Greene Δ+40Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Shamil Abdurakhimov Δ+32Jul 30, 2022 — W vs Derrick Lewis Δ+40Dec 3, 2022 — W vs Tai Tuivasa Δ+17Apr 22, 2023 — W vs Curtis Blaydes Δ+22Nov 11, 2023 — L vs Tom Aspinall Δ-23Jun 22, 2024 — L vs Alexander Volkov Δ-14Feb 1, 2025 — W vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Δ+16Aug 23, 2025 — W vs Waldo Cortes Acosta Δ+15 14341500156616321698 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":203.9,"elo":1474,"date":"2018-11-24","opp":"Alistair Overeem","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":74.8,"y":177.5,"elo":1506,"date":"2019-04-20","opp":"Marcelo Golm","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":140.2,"y":145.2,"elo":1547,"date":"2019-10-26","opp":"Maurice Greene","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":3,"x":442.7,"y":119.3,"elo":1579,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Shamil Abdurakhimov","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":4,"x":488.7,"y":87.2,"elo":1619,"date":"2022-07-30","opp":"Derrick Lewis","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":5,"x":532.3,"y":73.5,"elo":1636,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Tai Tuivasa","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":580.7,"y":56.1,"elo":1658,"date":"2023-04-22","opp":"Curtis Blaydes","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":7,"x":650.9,"y":74.4,"elo":1635,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Tom Aspinall","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":8,"x":728.4,"y":86.1,"elo":1620,"date":"2024-06-22","opp":"Alexander Volkov","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":9,"x":805.8,"y":73.3,"elo":1636,"date":"2025-02-01","opp":"Jairzinho Rozenstruik","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":61,"elo":1651,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Waldo Cortes Acosta","result":"W","delta":15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 23, 2025 Waldo Cortes Acosta W +15
Feb 1, 2025 Jairzinho Rozenstruik W +16
Jun 22, 2024 Alexander Volkov L -14
Nov 11, 2023 Tom Aspinall L -23
Apr 22, 2023 Curtis Blaydes W +22

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.27 avg 3.07
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
44% avg 50%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.67 avg 2.78
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
56% avg 52%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.35 avg 1.31
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
25% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
75% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.32
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
75%
6 / 8
Finish rate
KO
6
75% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
25% of wins
KO: 6 (75%) 6 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (25%) 2
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
6 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1653
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.1
actual +3 vs expected