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Sergei Pavlovich

Active #5 heavyweight · age 34 · Southpaw · 6'3" 191 cm · 257 lb 117 kg · reach 84" 213 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1619
Global Elo 1664 ±35
Rank
#5
top 10% of division
UFC record
9-3-0
KO 7 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
+3
Δ90d +13 · Δ1y +28
Last fight
May 30, 2026
Win by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 3m
Avg fight time
5:17
Title fights
0-1
Bonuses
4
Fights per year
1.6
Since last fight
21d

Honest Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Nov 24, 2018 — L vs Alistair Overeem Δ-26Apr 20, 2019 — W vs Marcelo Golm Δ+33Oct 26, 2019 — W vs Maurice Greene Δ+40Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Shamil Abdurakhimov Δ+32Jul 30, 2022 — W vs Derrick Lewis Δ+40Dec 3, 2022 — W vs Tai Tuivasa Δ+17Apr 22, 2023 — W vs Curtis Blaydes Δ+22Nov 11, 2023 — L vs Tom Aspinall Δ-23Jun 22, 2024 — L vs Alexander Volkov Δ-14Feb 1, 2025 — W vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Δ+16Aug 23, 2025 — W vs Waldo Cortes Acosta Δ+15May 30, 2026 — W vs Tallison Teixeira Δ+13 140014501500155016001650 2020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":373.3,"elo":1429,"date":"2018-11-24","opp":"Alistair Overeem","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":128.6,"y":331.2,"elo":1462,"date":"2019-04-20","opp":"Marcelo Golm","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":178.2,"y":279.7,"elo":1502,"date":"2019-10-26","opp":"Maurice Greene","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":3,"x":407.8,"y":238.5,"elo":1534,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Shamil Abdurakhimov","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":4,"x":442.7,"y":187.3,"elo":1574,"date":"2022-07-30","opp":"Derrick Lewis","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":5,"x":475.7,"y":165.4,"elo":1591,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Tai Tuivasa","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":512.4,"y":137.7,"elo":1613,"date":"2023-04-22","opp":"Curtis Blaydes","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":7,"x":565.7,"y":166.9,"elo":1590,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Tom Aspinall","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":8,"x":624.5,"y":185.5,"elo":1575,"date":"2024-06-22","opp":"Alexander Volkov","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":9,"x":683.3,"y":165.1,"elo":1591,"date":"2025-02-01","opp":"Jairzinho Rozenstruik","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":736.5,"y":145.6,"elo":1607,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Waldo Cortes Acosta","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":11,"x":810,"y":129.3,"elo":1619,"date":"2026-05-30","opp":"Tallison Teixeira","result":"W","delta":13}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 30, 2026 Tallison Teixeira W +13
Aug 23, 2025 Waldo Cortes Acosta W +15
Feb 1, 2025 Jairzinho Rozenstruik W +16
Jun 22, 2024 Alexander Volkov L -14
Nov 11, 2023 Tom Aspinall L -23

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
78%
7 / 9
Finish rate
KO
7
78% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
22% of wins
KO: 7 (78%) 7 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (22%) 2
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
7 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 285 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
83% Head
  • Head 83%
  • Body 11%
  • Leg 6%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 11%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
67%
of losses by finish
2 of 3 · usually R1
2 KO/TKO 0 Sub 1 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1621
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
4
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Curtis Blaydes
Elo 1697 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
5.8
+3.2 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 12 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1571
1540
Notable wins
Curtis Blaydes 1697 Derrick Lewis 1652 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1620 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1620

Top heavyweight

See full rankings →
Ciryl Gane IC
#1 · Elo 1691
Alexander Volkov
#2 · Elo 1656
Alex Pereira
#3 · Elo 1655
Tom Aspinall C
#4 · Elo 1654
Josh Hokit
#6 · Elo 1613
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Sergei Pavlovich on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.