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Roan Carneiro "Jucao"

Inactive · age 48 · Orthodox · 5'11" 180 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 76" 193 cm
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2007
Elo rating
1461
Global Elo 1507 ±35
Rank
—
—
UFC record
4-5-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
-1
Δ90d +18 · Δ1y +18
Last fight
Feb 11, 2017
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 28m
Avg fight time
9:45
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
0.9
Ground control
38m
Since last fight
9y 4mo

Honest Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Apr 5, 2007 — W vs Rich Clementi Δ+27Jun 12, 2007 — L vs Jon Fitch Δ-22Dec 29, 2007 — W vs Tony DeSouza Δ+34Jun 7, 2008 — L vs Kevin Burns Δ-37Sep 6, 2008 — L vs Ryo Chonan Δ-30Feb 28, 2015 — W vs Mark Munoz Δ+24Feb 21, 2016 — L vs Derek Brunson Δ-13Sep 17, 2016 — W vs Kenny Robertson Δ+18Feb 11, 2017 — L vs Ryan LaFlare Δ-11 1420144014601480150015201540 20092011201320152017 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":200.1,"elo":1499,"date":"2007-04-05","opp":"Rich Clementi","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":1,"x":103.6,"y":259.9,"elo":1476,"date":"2007-06-12","opp":"Jon Fitch","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":2,"x":143.6,"y":168.4,"elo":1511,"date":"2007-12-29","opp":"Tony DeSouza","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":175.8,"y":266.5,"elo":1474,"date":"2008-06-07","opp":"Kevin Burns","result":"L","delta":-37},{"i":4,"x":194,"y":347.9,"elo":1443,"date":"2008-09-06","opp":"Ryo Chonan","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":5,"x":667.2,"y":284.4,"elo":1467,"date":"2015-02-28","opp":"Mark Munoz","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":6,"x":738.8,"y":318,"elo":1455,"date":"2016-02-21","opp":"Derek Brunson","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":7,"x":780.6,"y":270.5,"elo":1472,"date":"2016-09-17","opp":"Kenny Robertson","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":8,"x":810,"y":300.7,"elo":1461,"date":"2017-02-11","opp":"Ryan LaFlare","result":"L","delta":-11}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 11, 2017 Ryan LaFlare L -11
Sep 17, 2016 Kenny Robertson W +18
Feb 21, 2016 Derek Brunson L -13
Feb 28, 2015 Mark Munoz W +24
Sep 6, 2008 Ryo Chonan L -30

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 1 (25%) 1 Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 133 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
74% Head
  • Head 74%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
46% Distance
  • Distance 46%
  • Clinch 19%
  • Ground 35%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
60%
of losses by finish
3 of 5 · usually R2
1 KO/TKO 2 Sub 2 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1558
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Mark Munoz
Elo 1576 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
3.9
+0.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 9 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1472
1605

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Roan Carneiro on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.