HonestElo
← welterweight

Daniel Roberts "Ninja"

Inactive · age 45 · Southpaw · 5'10" 178 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • 67% of wins by submission
  • 67% of wins finished in round 1
  • UFC veteran since 2010
Elo rating
1475
Global Elo 1521 ±35
Rank
—
—
UFC record
3-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 · Dec 1
Streak
-3
Δ90d +14 · Δ1y +14
Last fight
Jan 20, 2012
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 7m
Avg fight time
9:34
Bonuses
2
Fights per year
3.8
Ground control
16m
Since last fight
14y 5mo

Honest Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Mar 21, 2010 — L vs John Howard Δ-25Jul 3, 2010 — W vs Forrest Petz Δ+28Oct 23, 2010 — W vs Mike Guymon Δ+33Jan 1, 2011 — W vs Greg Soto Δ+33Apr 30, 2011 — L vs Claude Patrick Δ-29Jun 26, 2011 — L vs Rich Attonito Δ-17Jan 20, 2012 — L vs Charlie Brenneman Δ-15 14001425145014751500152515501575 20112012 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":332.8,"elo":1442,"date":"2010-03-21","opp":"John Howard","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":1,"x":201.8,"y":280.9,"elo":1471,"date":"2010-07-03","opp":"Forrest Petz","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":322.1,"y":221.1,"elo":1503,"date":"2010-10-23","opp":"Mike Guymon","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":397.3,"y":161.1,"elo":1536,"date":"2011-01-01","opp":"Greg Soto","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":4,"x":525.2,"y":215.1,"elo":1507,"date":"2011-04-30","opp":"Claude Patrick","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":5,"x":586.5,"y":245.4,"elo":1490,"date":"2011-06-26","opp":"Rich Attonito","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":6,"x":810,"y":273.8,"elo":1475,"date":"2012-01-20","opp":"Charlie Brenneman","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 20, 2012 Charlie Brenneman L -15
Jun 26, 2011 Rich Attonito L -17
Apr 30, 2011 Claude Patrick L -29
Jan 1, 2011 Greg Soto W +33
Oct 23, 2010 Mike Guymon W +33

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
2 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
2
67% of wins
DEC
1
33% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 2 (67%) 2 Dec: 1 (33%) 1
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 49 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
53% Head
  • Head 53%
  • Body 33%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
69% Distance
  • Distance 69%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 16%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
25%
of losses by finish
1 of 4
1 KO/TKO 0 Sub 3 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1530
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Greg Soto
Elo 1532 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
3.4
−0.4 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 7 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1582
1532

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Daniel Roberts on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.