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Dan Hardy "The Outlaw"

Inactive · age 44 · Orthodox · 6'0" 183 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 33% of wins finished in round 1
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2008
Elo rating
1524
Global Elo 1577 ±41
Rank
—
—
UFC record
6-4-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 4
Streak
+2
Δ90d -5 · Δ1y -5
Last fight
Sep 29, 2012
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 4m
Avg fight time
12:22
Title fights
0-1
Bonuses
3
Fights per year
2.5
Since last fight
13y 9mo

Honest Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Oct 18, 2008 — W vs Akihiro Gono Δ+32Feb 21, 2009 — W vs Rory Markham Δ+33Jun 13, 2009 — W vs Marcus Davis Δ+35Nov 14, 2009 — W vs Mike Swick Δ+35Mar 27, 2010 — L vs Georges St-Pierre Δ-26Oct 16, 2010 — L vs Carlos Condit Δ-22Mar 26, 2011 — L vs Anthony Johnson Δ-18Aug 14, 2011 — L vs Chris Lytle Δ-20May 26, 2012 — W vs Duane Ludwig Δ+17Sep 29, 2012 — W vs Amir Sadollah Δ+16 1450147515001525155015751600 2009201020112012 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":358.4,"elo":1474,"date":"2008-10-18","opp":"Akihiro Gono","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":1,"x":152.9,"y":287.3,"elo":1508,"date":"2009-02-21","opp":"Rory Markham","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":208.8,"y":213.5,"elo":1542,"date":"2009-06-13","opp":"Marcus Davis","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":3,"x":285.7,"y":138.2,"elo":1577,"date":"2009-11-14","opp":"Mike Swick","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":4,"x":352.1,"y":193.9,"elo":1551,"date":"2010-03-27","opp":"Georges St-Pierre","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":5,"x":453.5,"y":240.4,"elo":1530,"date":"2010-10-16","opp":"Carlos Condit","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":6,"x":533.9,"y":278.4,"elo":1512,"date":"2011-03-26","opp":"Anthony Johnson","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":7,"x":604.3,"y":321.9,"elo":1491,"date":"2011-08-14","opp":"Chris Lytle","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":8,"x":747.1,"y":285.4,"elo":1508,"date":"2012-05-26","opp":"Duane Ludwig","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":9,"x":810,"y":251.7,"elo":1524,"date":"2012-09-29","opp":"Amir Sadollah","result":"W","delta":16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 29, 2012 Amir Sadollah W +16
May 26, 2012 Duane Ludwig W +17
Aug 14, 2011 Chris Lytle L -20
Mar 26, 2011 Anthony Johnson L -18
Oct 16, 2010 Carlos Condit L -22

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
2 / 6
Finish rate
KO
2
33% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
4
67% of wins
KO: 2 (33%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 4 (67%) 4
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 304 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
63% Head
  • Head 63%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 20%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
66% Distance
  • Distance 66%
  • Clinch 23%
  • Ground 12%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
50%
of losses by finish
2 of 4
1 KO/TKO 1 Sub 2 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1542
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
2
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Mike Swick
Elo 1679 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.8
+1.2 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 10 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1536
1562
Notable wins
Mike Swick 1679 Marcus Davis 1637

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Dan Hardy on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.